CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 17, 2:04 AM EDT594
FXUS61 KCLE 170604
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
204 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will persist across the Northeast and
eastern Great Lakes regions through Thursday. A weak cold front will
move south across the local forecast area on Friday before another
area of high pressure builds overhead from the north on Saturday.
Low pressure moving across the Midwest will lift a warm front across
the eastern Great Lakes Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Ridge of high pressure continues to lead to quiet and dry weather
across the region through the near term. Closed upper level low
stationed along the Mid-Atlantic coast will stay well east of the
region. The local area will not see any precipitation from this
coastal low, but some mid-high level clouds will continue to drift
into the southeastern portion of the CWA through tonight. Conditions
will be favorable for fog development once again tonight across
the western half of the forecast area where clear skies and
light and variable winds will occur. Outside of Northwest and
North Central Ohio, fog will remain isolated to low- lying areas
and river valleys. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 50s
tonight.
Rinse and repeat expected on Wednesday with high temperatures in the
low/mid 80s, the development of an afternoon lake breeze, and
minimum RH values of 30-40% inland from Lake Erie. Overnight lows
will settle in the mid 50s Wednesday night with patchy dense fog
possible across the local forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will slowly erode on Thursday as a cold front moves
south across the northern Great Lakes. The front will sink south
across Lake Erie and Northern Ohio on Friday. Maintaining a dry
forecast as forcing and moisture remain too weak for any
precipitation. Locations downwind of Lake Erie will likely only see
some increased cloud cover with the cold front.
High temperatures on Thursday will rise into the mid to upper 80s
with slightly cooler temperatures behind the cold front on Friday in
the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will settle in the mid to upper
50s Thursday night and low to mid 50s Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will build in behind the aforementioned cold front for
Saturday leading to another window of quiet and dry weather. An area
of low pressure tracking across the Northern Plains will lift a warm
front east across the local area on Sunday. Rain chances will return
to the region to end the weekend and begin next week. Timing for
rain showers continues to be pushed back slightly as showers will
need to overcome a fairly dry airmass. Best chance for any rain
showers will be Sunday night onward. However, QPF at this time
remains too low to make a meaningful dent in areawide drought
conditions.
Highs through the long term will continue to rise into the low 80s
each afternoon with overnight lows ranging between the upper 50s to
lower 60s each night.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
High pressure will continue to influence the region through the
TAF period with dry conditions. Areas of dense fog will be the
primary concern later tonight through sunrise in NW Ohio.
Moisture from northeast flow off Lake Erie today will make fog a
greater concern in this area overnight. Fog can be seen
expanding on satellite imagery from Sandusky to Fremont to
Bowling Green and confidence is pretty high that it will reach
FDY between 09-12Z. Fog is also possible at TOL but confidence
is a little lower. Visibilities are expected to improve quickly
through 13Z but could take until 14-15Z for skies to scatter
out. Beyond that, VFR expected through the remainder of the TAF
period.
Winds will be light and variable through sunrise, developing out
of the north/northeast this afternoon.
Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible each morning through
Friday between 09-13Z with patchy fog. VFR conditions expected
the rest of the period.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure extending from New England to the Central Great
Lakes will continue to influence the region with generally light
wind and wave conditions through Thursday. A weak cold front
will settle south across Lake Erie on Friday with a wind shift
to the northeast and speeds of 10-15 knots. Northeast to east
winds are expected to strengthen to 10-20 knots on Saturday as
strong Canadian high pressure builds southeast into Quebec.
Depending on if the flow is more northeasterly or easterly will
impact if higher waves reach the nearshore waters or if they are
focused more in the open waters. Will need to monitor
conditions for Saturday with a chance of needing a Small Craft
Advisory and Beach Hazards for a portion of the lake. Conditions
should improve by Sunday with winds shifting around to the
south with offshore flow.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 17, 2:04 AM EDT---------------
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