PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 16, 6:33 AM CDT726
FXUS63 KPAH 161133
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
633 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures through Thursday will be 7 to 10+ degrees
above normal.
- Lower humidity levels will keep heat indices close to the
actual temperatures versus having extreme heat index values.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms arrive late this week and
into the weekend. Rainfall totals are expected to be less
than an inch for most areas.
- Drought conditions will linger and worsen through the end of
the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Weak upper level ridging remains in control of the weather
across the region. This will continue for the next couple of
days as it de-amplifies resulting in continued above normal
temperatures. A general persistence forecast means high
temperatures will remain in the 90s through Thursday. Dewpoints
remaining in the 60s this week will help to keep the heat
indices near the ambient temperatures. Essentially no
precipitation is currently forecast through Thursday beneath
the mid to upper level ridging. A weak inverted sfc trough may
provide a focus for a few very isolated showers this afternoon
across western Kentucky. The lack of moisture may hinder
activity today as we see strong mixing this afternoon. HREF and
CAMs do suggest a few very isolated showers and for now will
follow the blend which keeps non-mentionable PoPs in the
forecast.
Our next best chance of rain arrives late this week and over
the weekend. Upper level troughing digs into the plains driving
a couple of fronts near the area. This should result in
increasing chances of showers and storms. Rain chances approach
from the west Friday afternoon, and continue across the rest of
the region Friday night into Sunday. QPF amounts still aren't
overly impressive with NBM 24-hour probability of greater than
a tenth of an inch of precipitation under 50%. Temperatures
look to cool into the 80s by the weekend, a welcome relief
after several consecutive days of 90+ degree temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Morning fog at CGI will clear out quickly over the next hour.
VFR expected today with light easterly winds. FEW-SCT diurnal
CU is expected this afternoon with bases around 6kft. Introduced
fog at CGI tonight, after 09z. Elsewhere VFR is expected to
prevail.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT tonight for INZ081-
085>088.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ082.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 16, 6:33 AM CDT---------------
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