[Alert]LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 11:50 PM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

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LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 11:50 PM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

289 
FXUS64 KLIX 020450
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1150 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night) 
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

A weak surface front still lingers just south of our coast. This
feature will continue to help generate at least some marine
convection, which may move over the southern tier today. Another
weak trough/surface front resides over the midsouth region, which
may get close enough for a shower or two in southwest MS this
afternoon during peak heating. Though coverage looks minimal as
much of the lift will be north of our CWFA. The overall synoptic
pattern remains unchanged with a large scale trough still residing
over the eastern US. This will keep our area in dry northwest 
flow and again outside of the convective chances over the 
water/southern tier most of the region should remain on the dry 
side with only silent 10s currently in the forecast along the 
I10/12 corridor.

Toward the end of the period the aforementioned front will 
finally surge southward as an impulse moves it along. Models have
the front passing through even beyond our 60nm marine waters 
sending a rush of dry air into the region, which will be the main 
story going into the long term period, at least initially. With 
the lack of QPF signal/POPs think temperatures will begin to
increase. Surface flow transitions to offshore, which is a clue of
a warming pattern to round out the short term period. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

To start the long term the mid and upper flow continues to be a 
dry northwesterly flow. Only change here is the surface front 
moves far enough away to shut down most rain/storm chances later 
this week. With continued offshore flow and lack of POPs/QPF, 
temperatures will warm well into the 90s. With lower RH values, 
heat index values will climb only into the upper 90s or lower 
100s, well below the need for advisories.

Going into the weekend a slight synoptic pattern change is
expected to take place. The overall flow will be lighter but
perhaps support a slow uptick in low level moisture. The
broad scale trough will flatten leading to a rather stagnant 
upper level flow regime. Globals have yet another surface front 
moving southward, but will likely hang up to our north as the flow
becomes more zonal across the midsouth region. The globals are 
pinging some rain chances, but again with only a gradual increase 
in moisture, coverage will be slow to increase as well as we go
through the weekend and into the start of the new workweek. The 
weekend continues to appear on the warm side, however, there will 
be more opportunities for rainfall, which may keep temps down just
a skosh in the lower 90s vs mid 90s expected prior to this 
pattern shift. (Frye) 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) 
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Mostly VFR conditions through the cycle. There could be some
isolated convection for the southern most terminals this afternoon,
but this will be the exception rather than the rule. Carried 
PROBs for -TSRA for the more likely sites. Otherwise, winds should
remain mostly light. (Frye) 

&&


.MARINE...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Light to moderate winds and seas across the local waters with the
higher winds mostly across the eastern marine zones this morning.
As surface high pressure noses into the region from the north, the
pressure gradient will start to break down later this afternoon
and tonight allowing winds to lighten. Marine convection will 
continue to be possible during the overnight and morning hours 
especially. Locally higher winds and seas can be expected in and 
around convection. The coverage should trail off a bit as dry air 
works into the region mid to late week behind a cold frontal 
boundary. (Frye)


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  68  89  67 /  10  10  20  10 
BTR  91  72  91  70 /  10  10  20  10 
ASD  89  70  89  69 /  20  10  20  10 
MSY  88  77  89  75 /  10  10  30  10 
GPT  87  72  87  70 /  10   0  20  10 
PQL  87  70  87  68 /  10   0  10  10 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF

Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 11:50 PM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

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