LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 16, 1:15 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...766
FXUS63 KLMK 160515
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
115 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Mostly dry weather is expected over the next week, with ongoing
abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions likely to persist.
* Temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs in the upper
80s to the lower 90s.
* Rain chances return for the weekend, but rainfall amounts are
expected to be light.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
The weather is quiet across the region this evening, and the
forecast looks on track. Temps look to fall into the low and mid 60s
under good radiational cooling conditions. Will see some upper sky
cover streaming overhead, which could keep the coolest spots from
completely bottoming out. Updated hourly grids for the latest
trends, but no changes to the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
In the upper levels, an Omega Block remains in place with ridging
centered over the Midwest and Great Lakes. The ridge aloft is being
squeezed by an upper level trough over ND/MN and a closed low over
the Carolinas. A long sfc boundary extends southeast over portions
of the MS Valley and Lower OH Valley. Low-level convergence, if any,
is weak across a modest moisture/instability gradient in central KY
and southern IN.
A healthy SCT cumulus field has developed this afternoon, with sfc
temps pushing into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Vertical development
has been limited by drier, subsident air aloft. The mid/upper level
ridge centered just off to the north will continue to exert its
influence through the short term period. And we're just not seeing
significant low-level moisture transport into the region, either,
with the main moisture plume well off to our west through portions
of MO, IA, and WI. Mainly dry conditions will continue, though a few
small, isolated showers will be possible this afternoon and early
evening. Likewise, a few isolated showers will also be possible
Tuesday afternoon, mainly across south-central Kentucky where we'll
have slightly more moisture to work with. But will keep PoPs below
15% at this time, so continuing with a dry forecast.
Tonight, skies will be partly cloudy with just some thin cirrus
streaming west from the upper low over the Carolinas. It'll be mild,
with lows mostly in the 60-65 degree range. We'll continue to see
SCT-BKN cirrus stream east to west on Tuesday, which may have a
small impact on afternoon highs. But expect another warm afternoon,
with highs in the 86-91 degree range.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
===== Tuesday Night through Thursday Night =====
Mid and upper level ridging will remain in place over the Midwest
and Lower OH Valley through this period while gradually deamplifying
with time. Light NE flow continues through a portion of the lower to
mid-levels, and the airmass dries out a bit with PW dipping below
1.0 inch. Expect dry conditions to continue, with morning lows
ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Wednesday will reach
the mid 80s to around 90, with upper 80s and lower 90s on Thursday.
===== Friday through Sunday =====
The mid/upper level ridge axis moves overhead on Friday as an upper
level trough starts to move from the central Plains across the
Midwest. This trough upstream will eventually bring us some light
rain chances over the weekend, but we'll stay dry through at least
Friday. Look for another hot day, with highs mostly in the lower
90s.
We should see a pair of upper level shortwave troughs slide east-
northeast across portions of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Canada
this weekend. It does appear the better forcing and moisture will
stay to our north, but we'll see at least modest moisture advection
via S/SW flow. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be
possible both Saturday and Sunday, though confidence in detailed
timing/amounts is low at this time range.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR conditions will continue for the period, with increasing high
level clouds expected for today. Light winds this morning will
become more of an E-NE flow later on. Some high base cu development
is possible this afternoon during peak heating, along with a few
stray showers near BWG. However, confidence in precip is too low to
mention in TAF at this time.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ029>031.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...CJP
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 16, 1:15 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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