MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 6, 12:41 PM CDT ...New Aviation...945
FXUS64 KMOB 061741 CCA
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1241 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
06.12Z upper air maps show a long-wave upper trof with its axis
aligned from the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest, southward across the MS
Valley. Along the south and eastern flank of the upper trof and to
the north of the local area was draped a surface front from the
Appalachians, southwest across northern AL, central MS westward into
central TX. Along this boundary, the highest deep layer moisture
(PWAT's from 1.5 to 1.9") extends from the TN Valley, southwest to
central TX. Within the moisture axis, the favored east side of the
upper trof and front to provide an enhancement of ascent, forecasters
are seeing pockets of organized convection. As we go through the
afternoon, the front is progged to slip southward as does the deeper
moisture into our area to support the potential for a slight to lower
end chance of showers and perhaps a storm as suggested by the short
range ensemble high resolution guidance. Appears a diurnal mode is in
place as activity is expected to dwindle tonight. Another impulse
aloft passing east around the base of the upper trof on Sunday along
with an inverted surface trof extending from the southeast to across
the north-central FL Panhandle may be enough to squeeze out a slight
chance PoP over a small portion of mainly the NW FL Panhandle.
Otherwise, dry conditions anticipated as surface high pressure begins
building into the local area.
The upper trof looks to remain aligned over the heart of the forecast
area through the middle of the upcoming week. Meanwhile, an inverted
surface stretched northeast to southwest over the northeast to
central Gulf, slips slowly westward in an evolving low level easterly
flow which would favor maintaining small chance PoPs, primarily
along and southeast of I-65 Monday and along the southern half of
zones Tuesday. Over the coastal waters, showers and storms look to
see better coverage. Progressively drier air is anticipated to flow
into the forecast area the remainder of the week.
Highs Sunday 85 to 90 interior and lower to mid 90s over the
southern zones trend mostly in the mid to upper 80's Monday and
Tuesday. Upper 80's to lower 90's the remainder of the week. Lows
look to remain mostly in the mid to upper 60's interior to upper
60's/lower 70's coast. A low risk of rip currents is anticipated
through Monday, then a moderate risk follows for Monday night through
Wednesday. The guidance continues to reflect the possibility that a
high risk of rip currents could set up for Tuesday. /10
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon as a
surface boundary moves south across the area, but will dissipate
during the early evening hours. Winds will remain light and
variable. /22
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Front sinks southward into the northern Gulf, bringing a light to
moderate northerly flow in its wake tonight into Sunday. Northeast
flow strengthens Sunday night as high pressure builds before turning
more easterly and relaxing on Monday. A moderate to occasionally
strong east-northeasterly flow expected into the early half of next
week. Seas to reflect a building trend the next few days before
subsiding mid to late week. Will continue to monitor for need of
Small Craft Exercise Caution or potential Small Craft Advisory
conditions in the near term. No other impacts are anticipated other
than higher winds and seas near storms. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 71 90 66 89 69 87 68 89 / 10 10 0 10 10 30 10 10
Pensacola 74 91 70 89 72 86 71 88 / 10 10 0 20 20 30 20 20
Destin 75 91 72 88 72 86 72 88 / 10 10 10 30 30 30 20 20
Evergreen 69 90 63 89 65 88 65 90 / 10 0 0 10 10 10 0 10
Waynesboro 66 85 59 87 63 88 64 88 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 0 0
Camden 69 86 62 87 65 87 66 88 / 10 0 0 10 0 10 0 0
Crestview 70 91 66 89 68 86 67 88 / 10 10 0 30 20 20 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 6, 12:41 PM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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