LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 3:36 PM EDT760
FXUS63 KLMK 131936
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
336 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A few showers will be possible across southern Indiana this
afternoon. There is a chance of showers across portions of the
region late tonight.
* Dry weather is expected over the next week. With most of the
region experiencing abnormally dry or moderate drought conditions
already, many counties have burn bans in place at this time.
Temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs in the upper
80s to the lower 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Afternoon satellite and observations reveal mostly sunny skies
across central Kentucky with a bit of mid-high level cloudiness
working southward through southern Indiana. Temperatures were
mainly in the mid-upper 80s, but an area of lower 90s was noted west
of the I-165 corridor. Area radars show a decaying line of showers
moving southward through southern Indiana. These showers will be
moving into a drier environment, so the downward trend in coverage
looks to continue. The best chances of a wetting rain look to be
across Washington/Scott/Jefferson counties of southern IN this
afternoon.
For this evening and tonight, will be watching ongoing convective
redevelopment across northwest and west-central Indiana. Aloft,
we'll remain in a northwest flow with a weak perturbation moving
through. The mesoscale models suggest that the storms over
northwest IN may hold together and drop into southern IN and
portions of north-central and possibly west-central KY late tonight
and early Sunday morning. Previous forecast was carrying a 20-30%
PoP overnight for coverage and that continues to look good at this
time. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-upper 60s over much of
the region, a few lower 60s are possible down across the Lake
Cumberland region.
For Sunday, a batch of clouds from possible overnight convection may
be in the vicinity with some scattered showers early in the period.
However, model soundings are still quite dry in the low-levels.
Overall temperature guidance has gone done some across central and
eastern KY with highs generally in the 84-89 degree range. West of
I-165 corridor and points west, highs look to top out in the upper
80s to the lower 90s. Lows Sunday night will be back in the mid-
upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
For the long term period, a very blocky pattern aloft is forecast to
continue through much of the upcoming work week. Omega type pattern
aloft, characterized by troughs on the coasts and a ridge across the
central US will hold sway as a Rex type block develops over the
eastern US. The current forecast will feature dry conditions at
least through Thursday with above normal temperatures being seen
across the region. Look for daytime highs in the upper 80s to near
90 over our region, with the core of the heat continuing to be
centered out to our west. The ongoing dry conditions will lead to a
negative feedback loop with increasingly dry weather leading to
worsening drought conditions across the region. A continued drying
of fuels may lead to elevated fire risk across the region. A number
of counties across southern Indiana and central Kentucky are already
under burn bans given the dry conditions.
Toward the end of the week (Thursday and beyond), the Rex block
across the east looks to break down with an upper trough axis across
the northern Plains moving eastward into the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
This feature looks to bring some welcome rainfall to the region
mainly in the Friday-Saturday time frame. With expected clouds and
falling heights, we should see a downturn in temperatures here as
well with readings on Friday-Saturday dropping back into the lower
80s for highs and overnight lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Northwest flow aloft is expected to continue across the region
through the period. Within the northwest flow, a weak perturbation
is expected to drop southward. Initially, just an increase in mid-
high level cloud cover is expected. There may be enough lift to
generate some showers this afternoon and this evening into
central/southern IN which could affect the KSDF terminal. However,
given current T/Td spread, any precip will have a hard time making
it to the ground as it falls through the drier air. Overnight,
mesoscale models differ a bit on convective chances with a complex
possibly dropping out of IN to KY. For now, will just keep PROB30
at HNB/SDF overnight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 3:36 PM EDT---------------
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