BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 2:48 AM EDT323
FXUS61 KBOX 080648
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
248 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather should prevail much of this week along with another
taste of fall like temperatures, as high pressure remains over New
England, but a coastal low pressure system could bring a few showers
to the South Coast, Cape Cod, and the Islands Wednesday into
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Lingering showers over far southeastern Massachusetts, otherwise a
dry and fall-like day ahead.
Few showers linger across Cape Cod and Islands as the cold front is
pushed out to sea from the departing mid-level trough. Otherwise, a
dry morning as high pressure builds in from the west, with continued
clearing skies. It's a cooler start this morning, especially areas
that cleared overnight, with lows falling into the 40s in interior
Massachusetts.
A very nice fall-like day is on tap with high pressure building in
from the west. While it's a mainly clear day, there are lingering
cirrus clouds across Cape Cod and the Island from the departing
cold front. Flow aloft is from the north-northwest, ushering in a
cooler and more dry airmass. 850mb temperatures are +6C to +8C, with
adequate mixing, high temperatures are expected to be 68F-73F.
With no change in the airmass or synoptic features, tonight will be
quiet and cool. Clear skies and light wind allows for radiational
cooling and a touch of valley fog. Much of the region dips into the
40s with the low 50s at the coast. The coldest spots in northern
Worcester County and northwestern Massachusetts dip down to 40F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Rinse and repeat type of day, increasing clouds late in the day
ahead of weak coastal system.
* A chilly night for interior areas, but seasonably cool elsewhere.
1030mb high builds across northern New England on Tuesday, nearly a
carbon copy of Monday. A mostly sunny day, clouds increase from the
southeast to northwest late-afternoon to early-evening in response
to an incoming weak surface low pressure system. Breezy northeast
winds and fall-like temperatures ranging between 68F-74F. Overnight
winds remain light with clear skies across interior areas of
southern New England, resulting another night of radiational cooling
and temperatures in the 40s. Coastal areas have lows in the low to
middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Few showers possible midweek, otherwise will have dry weather into
this coming weekend.
* Fall-like temperatures most days, but Thursday will be the warmest
of the days in the upper 70s to 80F.
The upper-level pattern heading into next week features a mid-level
ridge building across the central CONUS. Towards the end of the week
a mid-level northern stream trough crosses eastern Canada with the
shortwave energy displaced to the north. In general, it is a quiet
week across southern New England.
A southern stream shortwave rides the outer periphery of a mid-level
ridge that is situated over the Atlantic Ocean. This moves up the
coast Wednesday into Thursday, no major impacts expected with this
system, just periods of rain showers, which is needed across all of
southern New England due to the rainfall deficit. Highest confidence
for wetting rain are across Cape Cod and the Islands. Something to
monitor as we head towards the middle part of the week. Otherwise,
high pressure provides a dry and quiet week.
Temperature wise, as we have been advertising, this week will feel
like fall with temperatures in the lower 70s and upper 60s and
nights on either side of 50F. There is one day this coming week
which is warmer, Thursday, though it would be fairly seasonable in
the upper 70s to 80F. A moisture starved cold front moves through
Thursday night into Friday, Canadian high pressure builds in behind
the front leading to dry and fall-like temperatures Friday through
Sunday. Highs are in the lower 70s with nighttime lows in the 40s
and lower 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12z...
Pockets of patchy fog 2-5sm through 12z in typical areas, otherwise
will have VFR conditions.
Today...
VFR. Light NNW wind 5-8 knots, a sea breeze develops between 16z-18z
for the coastal terminals.
Tonight...
Mainly VFR, but a lower chance for fog to develop in prone locations
like KBED/KBAF, which would reduce flight categories before sunrise.
Wind are light to calm overnight, except coastal terminals with an
ENE wind 5-8 knots.
Tuesday...High confidence.
VFR. NE to E wind, 10-15 knots, coastal terminals gusting 20 knots.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence.
VFR. Sea breeze develops between 16z-18z.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence.
Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/...
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR.
Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High pressure building into New England today into Tuesday and will
maintain light N/NE winds with near shore sea breezes both days. We
are watching Wed/Thu timeframe for a coastal low passing offshore
from mid Atlantic. System is not expected to be overly strong, so
winds should stay below 25kt, but seas could reach SCA on open south
coastal waters and bring showers/fog. High pressure follows for
later this week and into next weekend.
Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/...
Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
for ANZ254.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
for ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
Dooley
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 2:48 AM EDT----------------
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