JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 9, 9:22 PM EDT864
FXUS63 KJKL 100122
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
922 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A dry forecast persists for the next week.
- Temperatures should warm to near or above normal by the start of
next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
Forecast is on track, and the latest obs are again blended in.
UPDATE Issued at 546 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
Diurnal fair wx cu linger over our southern counties, but are
declining. Temperatures have also peaked and are beginning their
slide. Latest obs are blended into the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 433 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
Late today, surface ridging extends southwestward near the
eastern slope of the Appalachians and continues to sustain our dry
air mass. It will remain in place during the short term period,
but weaken with time. Aloft, flow is weak and a sizable but weak
trough is situated roughly over the Mississippi Valley late today.
The trough will very slowly move east and be over our area late
Wednesday night. It could bring a few clouds, but we should remain
dry through Wednesday night. Daily insolation and a lack of
meaningful temperature advection will continue to bring a slow
warm-up as the air mass modifies.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
A disturbance moving across the area in northwesterly flow aloft
Thursday will push a frontal boundary south and east across the
Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with better moisture and
instability grazing our forecast area to the west as it moves south.
Cannot rule out an isolated stray shower or storm or two Thursday
afternoon and/or evening with this activity. Would not be surprised
to see PoPs increase somewhat once this comes within the time window
of most CAMS. Most likely locations to be affected would be along
and west of Interstate 75. The vast majority, if not all, locations
look to remain dry, however.
Surface high pressure remains over the region while mid-level
heights increase steadily yet gradually from the west with time
through the weekend. This will result in a continual gradual warming
trend while dry conditions remain, with high temperatures trending
consistently to near or slightly above normal in the 80s by this
weekend into early next week.
Cluster analysis by early next week then shows model ensemble
systems struggling to resolve the upper and mid-level patterns over
the northeastern quadrant of the country on the downstream side of
abnormally high heights to the northwest over Canada. Depending on
which model solutions verify will determine whether the forecast
remains dry, or whether there will be low chances for convection
across the area. For now, given the high uncertainty, will just let
the NBM ride for the PoP forecast, which now keeps any mention of
precipitation below the 15 percent threshold needed for mention in
the point-and-click and text forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
Fog will again bring IFR or worse conditions to many of the
deeper valleys during the late night and early morning hours, but
it is unlikely to affect TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions with
winds less than 10 kts are forecast through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 9, 9:22 PM EDT---------------
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