MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 2, 7:22 PM CDT ...New Aviation...776
FXUS64 KMOB 030022
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
722 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025
Northwesterly flow aloft will persist through Thursday as the
longwave trough over eastern North America is reinforced by an
upper closed low pressure area diving southeast over south central
Canada. We will then see a pattern change as the longwave trough
lifts north-northeastward with primarily zonal flow aloft to
finish off the week. The GFS and ECMWF models are showing slight
departures in the timing and position of an upper shortwave
forming over the southern Great Plains through the remainder of
the forecast. The ECMWF is faster with the development of the
upper shortwave over the weekend, with a slow eastward drift
toward the Mississippi River early next week. The GFS lags behind
with the development of the upper shortwave until Monday, and
keeps it rather stationary. Regardless of the timing, we will
eventually see a return to a deep southern flow with PWATs likely
increasing back up to between 2-2.25" sometime early next week.
Light winds will continue through the upcoming weekend as a weak
surface high pressure area persists across the region.
Dry weather conditions will continue tonight through upcoming
weekend outside of a stray afternoon shower or two, but not enough
coverage to include mentioning in the forecast. Although we are
maintaining dry conditions over the weekend per the NBM, I would
not be surprised that we may need to eventually included some
isolated daytime PoPs Saturday and Sunday, but this all depends on
the timing of the upper shortwave and moisture recovery. Higher
shower and thunderstorm coverage should likely return by Monday.
The forecast will mainly be a temperature forecast with highs in
the upper 80s and lower 90s on Wednesday slowly climbing into the
90-95 degree range Friday through the weekend. After a couple of
more nights with low temperatures on the coolish side, we will see
return of lows climbing to slightly above normal Thursday night
through the weekend. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast
period with light and variable winds becoming easterly tomorrow.
BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025
No significant impacts to small craft are expected tonight through
the weekend as a light diurnal flow will continues with onshore
flow during the afternoon into the evening hours and offshore flow
late overnight into the morning hours. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 66 89 68 90 70 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Pensacola 70 89 72 90 73 90 74 91 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 10
Destin 71 87 73 87 75 89 76 90 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 10
Evergreen 63 92 66 93 67 95 69 95 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 10
Waynesboro 65 89 67 91 68 94 70 93 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 10
Camden 64 89 67 91 69 94 71 95 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 10
Crestview 63 90 67 91 68 93 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 2, 7:22 PM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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