PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 9:39 PM EDT107
FXUS61 KPBZ 090139
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
939 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged period of mostly dry weather is expected as high
pressure dominates. Temperatures around 10 degrees below normal
today will see a gradual warming trend over the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Quiet and dry weather through Tuesday
---------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure will remain in control for the foreseeable future.
During the overnight hours, some isolated fog may form in the
river valleys due to radiational cooling and light winds.
Otherwise, temperatures will stay below average by 10 degrees.
The most likely area for frost due to dropping temperatures
would be north-central Pennsylvania (State College county
warning area), so no Frost Advisory will be issued for the
Tuesday morning time period.
Dry and clear weather will persist into Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with temperatures returning to seasonal
norms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather with a gradual warming trend
- Possible valley fog in the morning hours
--------------------------------------------------------------
Latest ensemble guidance shows good continuity with previous
runs, and there is still relatively high confidence of dry
conditions and a warming trend in temperatures with surface high
pressure in control. Forecast temperatures are slightly below
normal Tuesday then near normal by Wednesday.
With limited cloud coverage, radiational cooling during the
night will allow lows to consistently drop below normal through
the period, and have blended in 10th percentile temperatures to
account for this. Additionally, patchy river valley fog will be
possible each morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Warming temperatures and dry conditions continue
- Temperature and precipitation uncertainty increases this weekend
------------------------------------------------------------------
The dry pattern is likely to continue for the long term as
ensemble guidance continues to show good run to run continuity.
Ridging / sfc high pressure will maintain dry conditions into
the weekend before the potential for an upper shortwave dropping
out of Canada increases later in the weekend. By Sunday, the
ensemble spread in temperatures is generally between 10 and 15
degrees, and overall precipitation chances look relatively low
with clusters showing the greatest spread in heights northeast
of the forecast area. The NBM did give some slight chance pops
for Saturday night into Sunday but the chances are slim. In fact
the probs in DESI give a 25% chance of measurable precip. Its
likely that the dry conditions will persist.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions, minus a brief period of river valley fog that
might impact FKL between 10Z to 12Z Tuesday, is expected during
the TAF period.
Winds will be remain gradually light under a clear sky
with high pressure.
.OUTLOOK....
Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will continue
through mid-week under high pressure. Isolated river valley fog
may form early Wednesday morning.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Shallenberger
AVIATION...Hefferan
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 9:39 PM EDT---------------
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