IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 4, 9:52 PM EDT841
FXUS63 KIND 050152
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
952 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low threat for additional rain late Friday into Saturday, mainly
across the south
- Dry and Cooler weather from Saturday Night through the middle of
next week
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Clear skies and light winds across much of central Indiana this
evening has allowed temperatures to fall quickly this evening. Some
sites fell 10 degrees between 8 and 9 PM.
Winds will gradually increase some during the night as a cold front
approaches, and some clouds will arrive as well. These will help
temperatures to become steady or even rebound some later tonight.
Have lowered minimum temperatures a few areas based on the latest
temperature trends. Adjusted hourly forecasts as needed.
Did increase sky cover some over the south due to elevated smoke
moving into the area overnight, but mostly clear should still cover
it.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025
The short term will see the effects of CAA and then potentially
end with some showers forming late tomorrow. The rest of today
will feature a drying trend behind the cold front that passed to
the SE this morning as subsidence and dry air under an area of
high pressure keeps mostly clear skies today. The pressure
gradient becomes fairly weak today as high pressure slides
eastward, so expect light winds out of the southwest later this
afternoon. High temperatures will be noticeably cooler than the
past few days with highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s
this afternoon, despite ample sunshine.
As we get into Friday, winds will pick back up, mixing down during
the morning to midday as an upper jet max moves over northern
Indiana. Smoke models are showing a plume making it's way into the
region tomorrow, ahead of a surface boundary expected to set up over
the area. Not expecting much impact near the surface, but will
possibly create a haze aloft.
Models have been in decent agreement of the surface boundary likely
forming over the southern part of the forecast area or potentially
further south during the latter part of the day tomorrow. Some
showers may form as early as the afternoon, but better chances will
be during the start of the long term.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Showers and potentially a few rumbles of thunder will be possible
for the start of the long term Friday night as a boundary sets up
near the Ohio Valley. There are some uncertainties as to where and
when enough moisture and forcing will align within the region. Best
chances for central Indiana will be across the south but there is
also possible that our area will get missed and areas further south
will see all of the rain. For now, keeping the only mention of
likely PoPs tomorrow night in our far south.
Should the forecast see any rain, it will have moved out by Saturday
morning with high pressure building through the weekend and moving
through the region early next week. This will result in below normal
temperatures and an extended stretch in dry weather. The coolest
days will be Saturday through Monday with highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s and lows dropping into the mid to low 40s.
Strong ridging over the Rockies will finally progress eastward by
mid to late next week, allowing for temperatures to warm nearer to
normal for the end of the long term. Forecast soundings through all
of this time continue to show a very dry column. Thus mostly sunny
days and mostly clear nights will be expected much of the long term.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 651 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Impacts:
- Wind gusts near 20kt possible at times Friday
- Borderline low level wind shear conditions late tonight
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Mid and high clouds will move in later tonight and continue
Friday as a cold front moves into the area. Some scattered lower
clouds will develop with the front on Friday.
Stronger winds aloft will create borderline LLWS conditions late
tonight/early Friday, but confidence is not high enough to include.
Winds/clouds should prevent ground fog formation overnight at
KHUF/KBMG, but odds are nonzero.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 4, 9:52 PM EDT---------------
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