CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 5, 2:07 AM EDT188
FXUS61 KCLE 050607
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
207 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge will build into the Ohio Valley overnight followed by a warm
front lifting north on Friday. The next cold front will push back
south on Friday night. High pressure will return for the first part
of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Rain has mostly exited the area with the cold front extending from
upstate New York to near Pittsburgh at 3 PM. Clouds will continue to
scatter out from west to east as a dry slot and large scale
subsidence arrives. Surface high pressure will build east across the
Ohio Valley tonight with most areas seeing clearing skies and lows
ranging from the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.
The pattern remains active in the near term as we contend with
multiple pieces of energy rotating around the upper level trough
over Ontario. A compact upper level wave will dive south out of
Central Canada and round the base of the upper trough. Surface low
pressure over North Dakota today will deepen as it moves towards the
Upper Peninsula of Michigan while deepening to 992mb. Southerly
flow ramps up ahead of this feature with a 45 knot low level jet
crossing NW Ohio and Lake Erie on Friday morning. Strong low level
warm advection will push high temperatures into the mid 70s to near
80 degrees across the local area. We do start to see scattered
clouds Friday afternoon and even a low end 20 percent chance of a
shower with moisture streaming northeast. Better chances for rain
hold off until Friday night as shortwave energy streams northeast
along the frontal boundary. Chances of rain are focused generally
southeast of a line from Marion to Cleveland to Erie, PA.
Precipitation amounts are forecast to be light at generally under a
quarter inch of rain through Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The region will continue to be under the influence of the upper
level trough through the weekend. A shortwave lifts northeast across
the area on Saturday, helping to push the front and dry slot aloft
eastward. Skies will become partly cloudy from west to east through
the day on Saturday. 850mb temperatures fall by approximately 6C
from Friday's values limiting high temperatures to the 60s.
Models have come into better agreements with one more piece of
energy diving southeast out of Canada and crossing the Central Great
Lakes on Saturday night. Moisture will increase with west southwest
flow and low level convergence across Lake Erie. Lake to 850mb delta
T reach 18C supporting lake effect rain showers. Raised pops to 50-
60 percent along the lakeshore late Saturday night into Sunday
morning. The duration of well aligned flow and deeper moisture only
lasts through Sunday morning before getting disrupted. High pressure
expands into the Ohio Valley on Sunday and good cooling conditions
are likely Sunday night. Lows will be below normal in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad high pressure over the region on Monday will build to New
England through mid-week. This will provide another stretch of dry
conditions and gradually warming temperatures as heights rebound
aloft. A back door cold front with limited moisture is on the
horizon towards the end of the period as another area of high
pressure builds south out of Canada.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Weak high pressure over the area has allowed for mostly clear
and VFR conditions across the airspace early this morning. Some
low stratus and fog over western PA will slowly advect northwest
through the night and has good potential to get into KYNG and
KCAK and have a few hours of IFR. Otherwise, a warm front will
move north across the area and the air mass will mix out
effectively in the warm sector today with south to southwest
winds increasing with gusts in the 20 to 30 kt range this
afternoon. Some mid and high level clouds will filter in through
the day as a cold front swings across the region. This front
will feature a largely dry passage with winds shifting to the
west then northwest this evening into tonight. Winds will settle
below 15 kts behind the front tonight. Some showers could pop
in the eastern portions of the airspace for KCAK and KYNG
tonight and could have some rain around those terminals for a
vicinity mention but too low of confidence in terminal impacts
at this time.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with rain and ceilings into Saturday.
Non-VFR also possible with lake effect clouds and rain in NE
OH/NW PA on Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
There is a brief reprieve in stronger winds on Lake Erie early
this morning, as a surface ridge is over the region and has
allowed for weaker southerly flow on the lake. This morning, a
warm front will move through the region and winds will increase
in the warm sector of the feature this afternoon as the pressure
gradient increases and a strong low level jet moves over the
lake. Strong southwest flow is still expected with winds in the
20 to 30 kt range and gale force gusts possible over the central
basin of the lake. The current Small Craft Advisories and Beach
Hazards Statements for today into tonight remain valid. With the
strong southwest flow today, low water levels for western Lake
Erie remain a possibility. If winds overperform this afternoon,
then a Low Water Advisory may need to be issued, as any
overperformance could lead to water levels reaching the critical
mark for safe navigation.
Behind the front for Saturday and Sunday, a trough will remain
in the region and elevated west to southwest flow will remain on
the lake and there may be a need for a new round of Small Craft
Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements for the eastern half of
the lake with waves building to around 4 ft. This can be
evaluated over the next forecast cycle. High pressure will enter
for Monday and Tuesday and lighter flow on the lake will allow
for more favorable marine conditions, especially Tuesday when
offshore flow will return.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
late tonight for OHZ010>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
late tonight for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this
evening for LEZ142>144.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT
Saturday for LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 5, 2:07 AM EDT---------------
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