CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 3, 7:45 PM EDT ...00z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...846
FXUS61 KCLE 032345
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
745 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025
...00z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will curl northeast towards James Bay overnight,
dragging a cold front southeast across the area on Thursday morning.
A warm front will lift back north on Friday followed by a second
cold front on Friday night. High pressure will strengthen over the
region Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Warm and dry conditions are in place this afternoon with breezy
southwest winds. Low pressure is located over Ontario and will curl
northeast towards James Bay overnight. Showers are ongoing
across lower Michigan ahead of the cold front that is in the
vicinity of Lake Michigan. The upper level trough will deepen
overnight over Lake Superior with the cold front advancing
eastward. Considerable moistening will need to occur before
showers reach the ground in NW Ohio. There is a chance of
showers towards Toledo as early as 9 PM but will become more
likely towards midnight in the west and 5 AM towards Cleveland.
Good coverage of showers is expected with the front late tonight
into Thursday morning with a jet streak at 500mb rounding the
trough. Precipitation amounts are forecast to range from a
quarter to a half inch. The chance of thunderstorms will be low
with only a couple hundred joules of MU CAPE which decreases
overnight. We do see a little renewed instability by late
morning in the far southeastern corner of the CWA ahead of the
surface front where additional thunderstorms are possible late
morning. Best chances for a strong thunderstorms or two will be
towards the Youngstown area with bulk shear of 40-50 knots.
The cold front will usher in a much cooler airmass with 850mb
temperatures falling by about 8C. Given the early timing of the
front along with clouds and showers, highs will be limited to the
60s. Lows on Thursday night will range from the mid 40s to near 50
degrees along the lakeshore.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
By Friday morning winds will already be back out of the south ahead
of next dynamic system. The initial upper level low will curl
northeast towards Hudson Bay while the next compact upper level wave
dives south out of Canada towards Lake Michigan. Surface low
pressure will deepen to 991mb as it tracks across Minnesota and
Wisconsin then across the Upper Great Lakes on Friday. Winds will be
elevated on Friday with southwest gusts of 30-35 mph in the
warm sector and helping to boost temperatures back up into the
mid 70s. This low will also take a track northeast towards James
Bay on Friday night with the trailing cold front crossing the
area late Friday night. A deep layer dry slot wraps into this
system from Chicago across Lake Huron and into Quebec. This is
expected to keep NW Ohio dry but some moisture does spread
northeast along the frontal boundary across Central and
Northeast Ohio so we do have a chance of rain in the forecast
Friday night into Saturday. Will need to see if this front gets
held up at all by another piece of energy moving through the
Central Great Lakes and maintaining southwesterly flow along the
front. It does appear that the mid-level dry slot makes an
eastward push on Saturday afternoon and therefore we have the
forecast drying out. Temperatures drop back into the upper 60s
on Saturday with falling humidity. Generally light winds on
Saturday night and limited clouds will support temperatures
dropping into the low to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A series of shortwaves will move through the broad trough across the
Great Lakes region through Sunday. Some lake enhanced rain showers
are possible Saturday night into Sunday morning with convergence
along the northeast lakeshore. Otherwise the trend will be for high
pressure to build into the region from the west with conditions
drying out. Temperatures will remain on the cool side of normal into
Tuesday then trend warmer towards mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions this evening will gradually become MVFR to lower
end MVFR late tonight into Thursday morning. A cold front will
move through the area late tonight into tomorrow morning.
Scattered showers will accompany the frontal passage from west
to east across the area. Ceilings will drop between 1500 and
3000 feet later tonight through Thursday morning. Light rain
showers and mist will drop visibility between 3sm and 5sm. As
the front moves through our eastern areas of NEOH and NWPA
Thursday morning, there may be some scattered convection and
-TSRA between 14z and 18z at CAK, YNG, and ERI. Ceilings will
slowly improve to VFR from west to east during the day
Thursday. Ahead of the front winds will be southwesterly 5-10
knots. Winds will quickly turn northwesterly behind the cold
front while increasing to 8-12 knots late tonight into
Thursday.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with a cold front/low pressure system
Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front will move east across Lake Erie overnight tonight
through Thursday morning. As the front approaches, southwesterly
winds will increase to 18-22 knots tonight. Winds will turn
northwesterly behind the cold front by Thursday morning. Wave
heights will build to 3 to 6 feet with 7 footers possible.
Waterspouts will be possible along the front late this evening and
early Thursday morning. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards
Statements are now in effect east of the Islands early Thursday
morning through late Thursday afternoon.
A brief area of high pressure will build over the region behind the
cold front Thursday night which will allow for westerly winds to
diminish to 10-15 knots and wave heights to subside to 1-3 feet.
Another period of elevated winds and wave heights will occur on
Friday as a secondary front crosses the lake. Additional marine
headlines will likely be issued with the Friday cold front.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 AM EDT Thursday through
Thursday afternoon for OHZ010>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 AM EDT Thursday through
Thursday afternoon for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Thursday for
LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...77
MARINE...13
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 3, 7:45 PM EDT ...00z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...---------------
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