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296 FXUS64 KLIX 270429AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1129 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)Issued at 1129 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025Persistent east coast trough will remain in place through theperiod, with multiple disturbances moving around it. Firstdisturbance will cause the old frontal boundary to pull backnorthward as a warm front by late Thursday. Moisture will lag alittle bit, which will keep rain chances relatively low, at 30 percent or lower, through Thursday night. &&.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025A stronger impulse moving around the overall east coast troughwill push another "cold" front toward the area by late Friday. Bythis time, moisture will have increased across the area, with precipitable water approaching or exceeding 2.2 inches by Friday night. There continue to be questions regarding exactly how far souththis front will move before it eventually stalls. The latestoperational GFS pushes the front into the northern Gulf beforewashing it out, while the Euro pushes the front solidly into thecentral Gulf. Ordinarily, given the time of year, the GFS solution would seemmost reasonable, but this east coast trough is pretty hefty, so ifever there was a pattern to push a front well into the Gulf inlate August/early September, this would be it. And in fact, takinga look at the ensemble guidance, the GFS ensemble mean is a bit farther south than the operational run, moving the front into the northern Gulf. The Euro ensemble mean is slightly farther north than the operational run but still south of the GFS ensemble mean.That being said, it seems there is decent support for a full passage into the Gulf, though it may not reach the central Gulf asindicated by the operational Euro.What does this mean for the local weather? Well assuming the frontmoves into the Gulf, we'll see another dry period with dewpointsdropping into the 60s. Afternoon highs will still be warm, butovernight lows could actually drop below normal, reaching the mid60s in some of the more northern locations. If, however, the front does not make it all the way into the Gulf, expect a somewhat rainy pattern to persist with daily showers and storms focused along the decaying frontal boundary. With all things considered, won't get too excited about it quite yet through since the coolest/driest air would still be 5-6 days out, but there's at least potential! And the best part about thisforecast? Regardless of the front, there is nothing noteworthy forus in the tropics!&&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1129 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light windsand no significant ceilings. Isolated showers and storms areforecast Wednesday afternoon, with HUM and BTR being the mostlikely sites to be impacted. However, probability is too low tomention in the TAFs at this time.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1129 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025Light to moderate easterly flow can be expected Wednesday as high pressure remains centered to the north. By late Thursday, the high will shift eastward and a warm front will retreat northward, resulting in winds turning more southeasterly. This will also mark an increase in showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters. Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase further Friday and Saturday as another cold front drops toward the coast. Depending on where the front eventually stalls, at least scattered shower and thunderstorm activity could persist into next week.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 68 89 68 91 / 10 10 0 20 BTR 71 91 71 93 / 10 20 0 20 ASD 69 90 68 91 / 0 10 0 10 MSY 77 92 76 93 / 0 20 0 10 GPT 70 89 70 90 / 0 10 0 10 PQL 67 90 67 91 / 0 10 0 10 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...DMLONG TERM....DMAVIATION...DMMARINE...DM
