CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 2:28 AM EDT966
FXUS61 KCLE 010628
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
228 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly builds off towards New England through
early next week. An upper level trough and associated cold front
will move into the region on Wednesday and exit to the east by
Thursday. A secondary cold front will through on Friday as the
upper level trough lingers in the region through the end of the
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet weather is expected to continue through the middle of the
week as high pressure slowly builds off to the east. There will be a
warming trend over the next couple of days has the upper level ridge
pushes east. Highs will warm up into the upper 70s and low 80s for
western Ohio. Given the high pressure with clear skies and dry
airmass, overnight lows will drop on the colder side of guidance for
this morning. Temperatures won't be as cold as the past few nights,
but will still drop down into the upper 40s with some low lying
areas seeing low 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will begin to deepen into the upper Midwest
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Dry weather will come to an
end by Wednesday night as the corresponding surface cold front
enters the region from the west. There will be some scattered
showers through the evening before PoP chances increase with the
front. Even with decent jet support, there is fairly weak
instability with the lack of increased moisture and heating, so
severe weather threat is on the low side. There will likely be some
embedded thunder within the showers and along the front with what
weak instability and forcing there is. The cold front should exit
out of the region by Thursday evening and precipitation chances will
fall for the majority of the area as drier air moves in.
Temperatures on Wednesday will climb into the upper 70s and low 80s
with overnight lows in the mid 50s. With the cold front on Thursday,
temperatures will be muted given the precipitation and will only
reach up into the upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper level trough will be slowly drift towards the James Bay
region into the weekend. An additional cold front will through the
region Friday night into Saturday, though PoP chances are currently
low with this feature. There will be northwesterly flow behind the
front and along the western portion of the trough that will allow
for lake effect showers to form across northeastern Ohio and
northwestern Pennsylvania Saturday into Sunday. Upper level ridging
will be building in from the west on Sunday bringing in drier, but
cooler weather. High temperatures will be in the mid 60s with
overnight lows down in the mid to low 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
High pressure remains in control. FEW cumulus FL050 MFD-CLE and
east. Generally east winds less than 10kts, although a lake
breeze developing again along the lakeshore brings a shift to
the northeast during the afternoon hours around 10kts for ERI
and CLE.
Outlook...VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. On
Wednesday, isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms
with non-VFR are possible.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to influence the weather across
Lake Erie through Wednesday, allowing for calm marine conditions
to persist. Winds will be variable at 5-10 knots until Wednesday
when winds will become sustained from the southwest at 10-15
knots ahead of an approaching low pressure. On Wednesday night,
the aforementioned low pressure will move east across the
northern Great Lakes region, eventually moving a cold front east
on Thursday. Winds ahead of the boundary will increase to 15-20
knots. These winds will become west-northwesterly behind the
boundary at 15-25 knots. During this period behind the boundary,
waves along the nearshore may build to 3-5 feet. This period
will likely need marine headlines as conditions may be dangerous
to both swimmers and mariners. Calm conditions return by Friday
before another system potential bring hazardous marine
conditions to Lake Erie this weekend.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...26
MARINE...04
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 2:28 AM EDT---------------
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