BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 1:24 PM EDT684
FXUS61 KBOX 281724
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
124 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms on
Friday, with small hail and gusty winds possible with a few of the
strongest storms. Otherwise...dry and very pleasant weather pattern
should prevail over most of the Holiday Weekend into most of next
week with just a low risk for a few brief showers on Labor Day.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Dry tonight with lows in the 50s to the lower 60s
* Low risk for a few spot showers toward daybreak
Details...
Tonight...
An approaching cold front will move eastward into western NY/western
PA tonight. This coupled with high pressure to our east will
generate a southerly flow with a gradual increase in low level
moisture. This will result in overnight low temps a bit milder than
last night...mainly in the 50s to the lower 60s. Some mid and high
cloudiness will overspread the region ahead of the approaching
shortwave/cold front. That being said...dry weather will prevail
tonight with just the risk for a few spot showers toward daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* A round of showers & scattered t-storms Fri...Highs in the 70s
* A few stronger storms may bring small hail/gusty winds Fri PM
* Drying out Friday night and turning cool with lows in the 40s & 50s
Details...
Friday...
A fairly dynamic upper level shortwave/cold front will approach the
region on Friday. This cold front will cross the region Friday
afternoon into early Friday evening...bringing a round of showers
and scattered thunderstorms with it. We will break it down more
below.
A modest southwest LLJ in the warm air advection pattern may result
in an initial round of a few showers and perhaps an isolated t-storm
or two Friday morning. That being said...the greater risk for more
widespread showers and scattered t-storms will be Friday afternoon
into early Friday evening. Low level moisture will be limited...but
we do think dewpoints will recover into the 55 to 60 degree range.
In addition...the upper level trough is quite vigorous with cold
500T on the order of -16C/-17C! This coupled with highs in the 70s
shield yield Capes on the order of 500 to 1000 J/KG. Given the
amount of forcing along the front...we expect showers to develop
along with scattered t-storms Friday afternoon/early evening. Given
the cold temps aloft...the strongest storms may contain small hail
and gusty winds. While we can not rule out an isolated severe t-
storm or two...this appears to be mainly sub-severe storms with
small hail/gusty winds. The main time of concern for the showers and
scattered t-storms is between noon and 8 pm.
Friday night...
Any lingering showers/t-storms will exit the coast by early Friday
evening. Otherwise...a dry and cooler northwest flow of air will
work into the region behind the cold front. This will result in
another unseasonably cool night. Low temps Friday night will bottom
out in the middle to upper 40s across the normally cooler outlying
locations to the 50s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Extended stretch of tranquil/dry weather this weekend into the
middle of next week, with seasonable days and cool nights.
* Next chance for rain may hold off until late next week.
Details:
Entering into an extended stretch of dry weather in this
period, as a broad area of surface high pressure moves in from
the Gt Lakes this weekend and then parks itself over Nova
Scotia/Canadian Maritimes into the middle of next week.
Initially we're under deep cyclonic flow aloft from a closed
upper low over northern New England; aside from diurnally driven
cumulus clouds, no impacts to sensible weather are expected
with the main threat for showers being in far northern New
England. While the 500 mb pattern becomes more complex/blocky as
we move into early next week, it doesn't look like rain will be
in the offing for quite some time, potentially not until late
next week.
Temperatures start off a little cooler than normal, then a
modest warm up as we move into the early to middle part of the
workweek. Expect strong diurnal ranges to high and low temps
(mild days, cool nights). All told, pretty nice weather to close
out August and flip the calendar to September.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update...
This afternoon through tonight...High confidence.
VFR. SSW 5-12 knots.
Friday...High confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions but we do expect a round of showers and
scattered t-storms which will bring briefly lower conditions. While
a few showers will be possible Friday morning...appears the greater
risk will be after 16z/17z until about 00z from west to east. A few
of the stronger storms may contain small hail/gusty winds.
Friday night...High confidence.
Any lingering showers/t-storms will exit the coast early Friday
evening. Otherwise...VFR conditions with light NW winds.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. The main concern is the risk for
a few t-storms in the vicinity of the terminal Friday afternoon into
the evening push.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. The main concern is the risk for
a few t-storms in the vicinity of the terminal Friday afternoon.
Outlook /Saturday through Monday/...
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Friday night...High confidence.
S-SW winds are expected tonight into Friday ahead of an approaching
cold front. We may see some 20+ knot wind gusts and choppy seas
Friday...but thinking conditions remain below small craft advisory
thresholds. The main concern though will be for a few strong t-
storms later Friday into early Friday evening that may contain small
hail/gusty winds as a cold front crosses the waters. Winds will then
shift to the WNW Friday night behind the cold front...but should
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.
Outlook /Saturday through Monday/...
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
Saturday Night through Labor Day: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Frank/Loconto
MARINE...Frank/Loconto
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 1:24 PM EDT----------------
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