ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 7:20 PM EDT096
FXUS61 KILN 262320
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
720 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian air mass will result in seasonably cool and dry air through
the majority of the period. A warming trend is expected this weekend
heading into the following work week. Dry conditions are generally
favored through the next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Longwave H5 trough remains firmly planted across the eastern CONUS.
Mean trough axis is aligned over the Ohio Valley region, which is
where some of the lowest temperature anomalies are occurring.
Satellite obs this afternoon show a lot of fair wx cu, which is being
diurnally enhanced. Cannot rule out a few sprinkles or a light
shower from some of the taller cu, mainly along/north of I-70 today.
However, the vast majority of our CWA remains dry.
Cu field will dissolve overnight with the loss of diurnal heating,
but a few mid level clouds may scoot through the region, especially
during the earlier part of the night. With the clearing skies and
subsiding winds, favorable radiative cooling conditions will ensue
and allow temperatures to plummet into the middle 40s to near 50. A
few locations may dip closer to 40, especially in our
climatologically cool spots.
Overland fog not quite as favorable given the dry air mass, but river
valley fog is certainly expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Synoptic pattern generally remains unchanged on Wednesday, with mid
level troughing persisting over the fa. Center of the surface high
will position itself across the Ohio Valley. While daytime highs may
trend a degree or two warmer, overall, temps will remain ~10 degrees
below seasonal normals. Diurnal cu will also be expected again, but
bufkit soundings would suggest that cloud coverage will be lower
based on lower moisture content.
Another chilly night expected Wednesday night with the majority of
our CWA dipping into the 40s once again. River valley fog will also
be likely to develop.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rather stable pattern with the continuation of a deep long wave
trough over eastern North America to start the period. Only a minor
increase in ensemble spread of mid level heights as the trough
deamplifies early next week.
Short wave dropping across the Great Lakes, rotating through the
base of the long wave, will push a cold front through the area on
Thursday night. Some instability will develop out ahead of the front
in conjunction with a modest increase in precipitable water,
temporarily getting back to near seasonal norms. Only expecting
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
and evening, with west central and central Ohio having the
relatively greater chance of measurable rainfall.
There will be a reenforcement of unseasonably cool air in the wake
of the front, but then conditions will moderate late in the weekend,
continuing into early next week, although readings will not quite
get back to normal. More dry weather will prevail.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period, with the only
exception being at KLUK due to river valley BR/FG, which may lead to
brief MVFR/IFR VSBYs at the site. However, confidence in this
occurring is rather low due to an unfavorable wind direction.
The SCT/BKN VFR Cu field will diminish an hour or two into the TAF
period with the loss of heating. While a few mid level clouds are
possible overnight, conditions will trend mostly clear by 03z area-
wide. VFR Cu redevelopment is expected to be less prominent this
afternoon, although still expect FEW/SCT coverage by 18z.
Light NW winds will subside early in the period before increasing
again to 6-8kts after 15z.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 7:20 PM EDT---------------
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