ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 1:28 AM EDT758
FXUS61 KILN 230528
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
128 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonal summer temperatures continue on Saturday before a cold
front moves through the region Saturday evening. This cold front
brings in much cooler air, resulting in below average temperatures
across the Ohio Valley for much of the following work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Saturday will be our final day of seasonal summer temperatures for a
little while as we'll be on the cusp of a broader pattern change. An
upper level low will be carving its way through Canada toward the
Great Lakes region, with much cooler air behind its cold front. We
never do get true return flow into the region ahead of this front and
the Gulf Coast moisture never quite gets back up into the Ohio
Valley. As such, most of the area will remain dry throughout the day
on Saturday with some patchy cu increasing in coverage by the
evening hours. Daytime highs reach the upper 80s along the Ohio
River/ low to mid 80s along I-70.
Meanwhile, a secondary boundary exists along the Appalachians and a
weak wave will progress northeast along this feature. Any lift
associated with this may produce scattered shower/storm coverage
during the Saturday afternoon hours, particularly near
northern/eastern KY and southern OH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will move through the region during Saturday evening
into the overnight hours. Signals point to a relatively dry FROPA
with just a few isolated showers forced out ahead of it. A wave of
CAA will push in behind this front and east central IN/ west central
OH will feel the effects of this during the overnight, with
temperatures dropping into the upper 50s (along with dew points into
the 50s).
By Sunday, northwesterly flow will take over in earnest and high
temperatures will be noticeably cooler, especially across I-70
corridor where CAA processes have been in place longer. Highs reach
the mid 70s in the north, low/mid 80s in the south. CAA cu linger,
though we should also see periods of sunshine.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will slowly build into the middle Ohio Valley
through most of the week. Under the high, very low environmental
moisture will lead to mostly clear skies and cool nighttime
temperatures. High temperatures will rebound quickly during the day
under abundant sunshine... though daily averages are likely to
generally remain below normal for late August.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet conditions across the region tonight. Guidance is hitting
overland fog pretty hard in spots, though not widespread. Have
handled this by including TEMPO MVFR for KDAY, KILN, and TEMPO IFR
for LUK (LUK may end up being more problematic, but will AMD as
needed). Chose to not fog CVG and CMH largely due to urban heat
island effects, though may need to AMD. Calm winds overnight with a
FEW to SCT cu deck.
Winds shift to out of the west on Saturday, around 10 knots or so.
High level cirrus blow off moves into the region during the afternoon
hours ahead of a cold front and low level moisture allows for a BKN
VFR deck. Sites should remain dry. After dry cold front passage in
the evening, winds shift to out of the northwest.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 1:28 AM EDT---------------
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