LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 6:27 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...457
FXUS64 KLIX 152327
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
627 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025
Tonight through Sunday morning, high pressure will continue to
build over the area. Southerly surface winds will help to advect
moisture into the area. Generally expecting around 40-50% PoPs
for the area as a whole during the afternoon hours Saturday.
These storms will be generally scattered in nature and will have
the threats of gusty subsevere winds (30-50mph) and frequent
lightning. Ponding of water on roadways will be a concern as well
if any training occurs.
Heat index values will be quite noticeable again with values
approaching or above 108 degrees during peak daytime heating hours
on Saturday. A heat advisory is in effect for Saturday. There is
some uncertainty in how cloud cover may affect the heating,
especially given that the storm coverage is higher this morning
than we thought yesterday. So, this could occur tomorrow, but
generally the short range models are showing the convection
occurring later, which would cause more heat risk concerns. As
always when the heat risk is higher, make sure to hydrate and take
frequent breaks if you will be spending time outdoors! MSW
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025
High pressure builds in over the area, and conditions will
continue to be hot Sunday into early next week with heat index
values above 105-108 forecast for the area as a whole. However it
is worth noting that heat index values are a little lower Monday
through Wednesday, closer to 105 degrees. Afternoon and evening
showers and storms will be expected through early next week with
high PWs and moisture expected to linger. The main risks with
these storms will be gusty subsevere winds (30-50mph) and frequent
lightning. These storms are not expected to be severe. Ponding of
streets from locally heavy rainfall could be possible as well if
a storm stays over the same location for a while. MSW
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025
Another very normal August day is expected in the region on
Saturday, and this means that the primary concern for aviators
will be scattered pop up showers and thunderstorms that could
impact the terminals for time to time mainly between 17z and 00z.
Brief periods of gusty winds to around 20 knots, lightning
strikes, and downpours that could reduce visibilties to MVFR range
or lower can be expected with any storms that pass over a
terminal. PROB30 wording is in place to reflect the convective
risk at all of the terminals between that 17z and 00z time period.
Outside of the convective threat, VFR conditions will be the rule
at all of the terminals through the entire forecast period. PG
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025
VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist
through the forecast period. TEMPO groups are in effect at most
area airports now through this evening for scattered storms over
the area. These storms will lower ceilings and visibilities to
MVFR conditions. MSW
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025
Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the middle
of next week, especially in the overnight and early morning hours in
the offshore waters. Winds will remain light at 10 knots or less
outside of thunderstorms. Near thunderstorms locally stronger winds
and higher waves and seas as well as waterspouts can be
anticipated. MSW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 73 93 75 94 / 20 50 10 40
BTR 75 95 76 96 / 10 50 20 50
ASD 74 94 74 94 / 10 40 20 50
MSY 79 95 80 95 / 10 50 20 50
GPT 76 94 76 94 / 10 40 20 40
PQL 75 95 75 93 / 10 40 20 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.
GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...MSW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 6:27 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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