ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 13, 6:33 AM EDT678
FXUS61 KILN 131033
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
633 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are possible today as a weak cold front
drops south. Thursday will feature slightly cooler and drier
conditions before a warming trend starts on Friday and lasts into
the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The trough axis that helped spark shower and storm activity this
evening moves east of the area early this morning. The best shower
and storm coverage should keep progressing east with it only leaving
low end rain chances through the rest of the predawn hours. Some
lower stratus and patchy fog may develop around daybreak, but
substantial cloud cover seen on satellite might inhibit surface
visibility reductions.
For today, a weak cold front noses south into the area. Showers and
storms are likely to form by the afternoon ahead of the front due to
forcing and instability overlapping. High PWATs support heavy
rainfall potential, but hopefully quick enough storm motions prevent
too much localized heavy rain. Severe potential is low since shear
and DCAPE parameters are marginal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The weak cold front will continue progressing south through the area
during the evening hours. Shower and storm chances will persist for
locations south of the front before it clears the area later
tonight. Winds shift to the north/northwest behind the front.
Forecast lows drop into the middle 60s along and west of I-75.
Forecast lows are warmer further east.
For Thursday, northerly winds behind the front allow some slightly
cooler and drier air to work into the Ohio Valley. Forecast highs
are generally limited to the middle 80s along with dew points in the
lower 70s to upper 60s. Low end shower/storm chances still exist
along and southeast of I-71 during the afternoon due to some
instability forming. However, overall rain coverage is expected to
be low.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure centered along the Atlantic coast will extend
westward across the Ohio Valley through the end of the week. Heights
will be rising as a mid level high sprawls northeastwards. But that
may not be sufficient to rule out some isolated diurnal convection
on Friday.
There is spread within the guidance suite in regards to a trough
moving across eastern Canada. Some solutions suggest that this will
be strong enough to suppress the mid level ridge somewhat and thus
allow the tail end of the trough to swing across the Great Lakes on
Sunday while other solutions have the mid level high being too
strong and thus predominating the region. The former would allow a
front to push south into the region bringing a chance of showers and
storms area wide while the latter would keep the front to the north
but perhaps be in close enough proximity to bring a chance of
convection to only northern counties.
Heading towards the end of the period, even the solutions with the
stronger ridge eventually retrograde that feature allowing long wave
troughing centered over eastern Canada to extend into the mid
Atlantic resulting in northwest flow across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley.
Temperatures will be rising back above normal with the warmest day
on Sunday. But probabilities of the heat index reaching 100 have
fallen to below 20 percent across southern counties. Temperatures
will trend slightly lower heading into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Patchy stratus has developed of portions of western Ohio/eastern
Indiana where higher level clouds have moved east allowing some
radiative cooling to occur. Some of this stratus may lead to brief
restrictions at KCVG, KLUK, and KDAY before mixing out after sunrise.
VFR cumulus is then expected for the rest of the day and evening
outside of shower and storm activity. Showers and storms are expected
to move across the region once again during the afternoon and
evening as a cold front pushes south. Visibility restrictions may
develop after 0600z Thursday morning behind the convective activity.
Winds take on more of a westerly component this morning before
slowly veering to the northwest by this evening and the north late
tonight. Winds remain light at around 5-10 knots.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Campbell
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 13, 6:33 AM EDT---------------
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