PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 11, 5:36 AM CDT361
FXUS63 KPAH 111036
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
536 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Typical summer-time heat and humidity will continue through
the next 7 days. Daily highs will primarily be in the low 90s
this week, and may push the mid 90s by next weekend.
- Heat index readings will make it "feel like" 95 to 102 degrees each
day this week. These readings may rise slightly higher over
the coming weekend.
- An isolated shower or storm can't be ruled out this afternoon.
Highest chances for scattered showers and storms will be
Tuesday- Thursday (30-50%), with lessening chances late in the
week into next weekend (20%).
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 533 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025
Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025
500mb ridging across the eastern CONUS today will gradually break
down and become centered over the southeast U.S. by midweek. This
occurs as broad troughing now over the North Central U.S. migrates
east, passing through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday into
Wednesday. Deeper moisture from the Gulf will begin to push north
into our area on Tuesday and even moreso on Wednesday. This will
combine with a weak frontal boundary sinking south towards us to
produce scattered showers and storms. Can't completely rule out an
isolated shower or storm this afternoon, but coverage should trend
higher on Tuesday afternoon and even more by Wednesday afternoon.
Upper level heights begin to rise again by Thursday into Friday as
the ridge builds north across the Ohio Valley through next weekend.
It appears to be more of a dirty ridge though with weak 500mb
impulses embedded within it to allow isolated convection to continue.
Temperatures shouldn't vary much from day to day. Might be a few
degrees cooler Wednesday and Thursday when coverage of showers and
storms may be higher. Otherwise primarily low 90s each day. Maybe a
few degrees warmer next weekend, possibly pushing mid 90s in places.
Humidity levels will nudge upwards after today, with dew points more
into the low to mid 70s. Peak heat index readings should top out in
the mid 90s to around 100 most days. Might be slightly higher on
Tuesday and then again next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. SCT-BKN cu
field will develop by late morning through the afternoon. Skies
become mostly clear again towards sunset. SSW winds 4-6 kts this
morning will become southeasterly by mid to late afternoon.
Can't rule out an isolated shower or storm during the afternoon,
but coverage will be very isolated so no mention in TAFs.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 11, 5:36 AM CDT---------------
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