CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 11, 1:44 AM EDT170
FXUS61 KCLE 110544
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
144 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to influence the region into Tuesday.
A cold front will sweep east through the area on Wednesday,
followed by high pressure for Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main change to the near term forecast was to introduce the
potential for a few isolated showers and/or thunderstorms for
Monday afternoon and evening along a surface trough, and well-
ahead of an approaching cold front. Any shower and/or
thunderstorm chances should be confined to Northwest Ohio and
generally west of the I-71 corridor.
Otherwise, high pressure will continue to influence the region's
weather pattern as it gradually shifts east towards the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeast. Temperatures will remain above average
for the near term period with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Precipitation chances will be increasing across the area Tuesday
afternoon and evening as a cold front moves east through the
Great Lakes. Some uncertainty remains on shower and thunderstorm
coverage on Tuesday, particularly across the eastern half of the
area, as large-scale subsidence may persist along the western
periphery of high pressure.
Confidence increases in precipitation Tuesday evening and
especially overnight as a potent upper- level trough swings east
across the Upper Great Lakes, extending a cold front through
the area on Wednesday. Recent model guidance appears to suggest
showers and thunderstorms redeveloping off a pre-frontal
trough/outflow boundary Wednesday afternoon, primarily impacting
the far southeast portion of our area. Confidence in coverage
along the actual cold front, which will be further to the
northwest, remains on the lower side given uncertainty in
available low- level moisture and instability.
Above average temperatures will remain the norm for the short
term period with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Tuesday
and generally mid-80s on Wednesday. Heat indices will be the
highest on Tuesday, potentially reaching the mid-90s areawide.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A quieter weather pattern appears to develop for the long term
period as high pressure builds south across the Great Lakes for
Thursday and Friday, and perhaps even into Saturday. Will need
to start watching for the potential for a few pop-up
thunderstorms by Sunday as low-level moisture increases across
the area. Seasonable temperatures in the lower to mid-80s on
Thursday and Friday will return to above average in the upper
80s to lower 90s by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
High pressure will gradually begin to drift east of the region
today, although it will maintain influence across the majority
of the area through the TAF period. A few showers and
thunderstorms may attempt to develop in the vicinity of
KTOL/KFDY this afternoon, although coverage may be a bit limited
so only have a PROB30 for precip for the time being. Confidence
in precip is slightly higher at KTOL so have also included VCSH
late this afternoon into this evening. but VFR conditions
through the entire forecast period, although any showers/storms
could produce brief non-VFR conditions at western terminals.
Winds will largely be southerly and relatively light tonight
before increasing to 5 to 10 knots by late this morning or early
this afternoon. A lake breeze will most likely produce a period
of west/northwest winds at KCLE and northerly winds at KERI this
afternoon into this evening.
Outlook...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with
non-VFR are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally expect quiet marine conditions on Lake Erie this week.
Winds will largely be offshore at 5 to 10 knots through Tuesday
with periodic onshore flow likely due to daily lake breezes both
this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Winds will become more
westerly as a cold front approaches on Wednesday and shift to
the northeast behind the front Wednesday night through Thursday.
Easterly flow will likely develop by Friday. Sustained winds
will remain in the 5 to 10 knots range Wednesday through the end
of the week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 11, 1:44 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
