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124 FXUS64 KMOB 192041AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL341 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Thursday)Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024The overall pattern remains similar to yesterday as our forecast area remains located in between newly formed Tropical Storm Alberto located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and a large upper level ridge of high pressure that stretches from the Mid-Atlantic states/ Eastern Seaboard to the Tennessee Valley region. A few rain showers have developed over portions of southwest AL and southeast MS within a narrow plume of enhanced moisture that is advecting westward across our area. No significant changes have been made to the forecast through Thursday afternoon. The upper level ridge of high pressure will expand westward across the Tennessee Valley, including central and northern portions of MS/AL tonight into Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers over inland portions of the area should diminish by early evening. Isolated to scattered convection should then become focused mainly offshore or near the immediate coast/beaches late tonight into early Thursday morning. Similar conditions are anticipated for Thursday afternoon with a few showers (possibly a thunderstorm or two) developing again as another plume of increased moisture spreads from east to west across our region on the southern fringe of the upper level ridge axis. We will maintain low POPs, mainly across locations east of I-65 and near the coast. Generally kept temperatures trended in line with the NBM. Lows tonight are forecast to range in the upper 60s to lower 70s over inland locations and in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees along the immediate coast and beaches. Highs on Thursday should range in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Coastal hazards: There have been a few reports of wave runup/minor coastal flooding along the west end of Dauphin Island (Bienville Blvd) and near I-10 ramps in northern Mobile Bay around times of high tide today courtesy of the persistent easterly flow. Similar conditions are possible on Thursday, so we have opted to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory around times of high tide Thursday for Mobile Bay, mainly for the I-10 ramps/Causeway areas and along the west end of Dauphin Island and possibly Shell Belt/Coden Belt Rd areas in far southern Mobile County. Dangerous surf with large breaking waves up to 5-7 feet will continue to impact area beaches through early Thursday evening. A HIGH rip current risk also continues through Friday night. /21 &&.SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Saturday night)Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024An upper level ridge over the southeastern quarter of the Conus shifts west as an upper level shortwave system off the Southeast Coast stalls and meanders around through the Short Term. A second shortwave trough moves east over the northern half of the Conus. It moves over the Northeast early in the coming week, where in combination with the shortwave system off the East Coast, begins to form a deep upper level trough over the East Coast. As the upper system moves near the Southeast Coast, a weak surface low organizes off the Florida Atlantic coast, then meanders northwest over the Southeast Friday night into the weekend, bringing an uptick in moisture levels over the Southeast (precipitable h20 values rise to around 2" in guidance) Friday/Friday night. With contention between subsidence from upper level high pressure and increased instability from the uptick in moisture levels, an increase in PoPs over land areas Saturday afternoon through Saturday night will be limited to areas southeast of I-65, with the biggest drop in subsidence and increase in instability located in this area. Over the open Gulf, moisture levels remain high enough over the warm Gulf waters to override upper subsidence, with scattered to numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms expected through the Short Term.Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures at well above seasonal levels, with an uptick from Friday into Saturday. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s are expected Friday, with mid to upper 90s over areas well inland from the coast. The increase in moisture levels Saturday will bring Heat Indices topping out in the 100 to 105 degree range over most land areas of the forecast area. Low temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday night rise into the low to upper 70s Saturday night./16&&.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024The mean upper trough continues to organize and deepen as the northeastern trough and southeast Conus trough join. The upper trough also shifts west over mainly the southeastern Conus as the mean upper trough begins to take a positive tilt over the Southeast. Moisture levels increase into the 2.1"-2.3", and with decreasing upper subsidence as the upper ridge shifts west, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected by Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will see a downward trend through the Extended, approaching more seasonal norms. With the increase in moisture levels, combined with near seasonal high temperatures. Heat Indices in the 101 to 106 degree range (locally higher) are expected in the coming week./16&&.MARINE...Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024No significant changes to the ongoing marine forecast. A moderate to strong east-southeasterly flow will persist through Thursday in response to the pressure gradient between newly formed Tropical Storm Alberto in the southwestern Gulf and a large area of high pressure over the southeast. Hazardous conditions for Small craft will persist through Thursday as seas range around 7 to 10 feet offshore with waves of 2 to 3 feet in nearshore bays and waterways. Winds and seas are expected to slowly diminish by the weekend as the gradient weakens. 03/21&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 73 90 73 93 72 93 74 94 / 10 20 20 20 10 30 10 20 Pensacola 75 90 75 93 76 91 77 92 / 10 30 20 30 20 40 10 30 Destin 76 90 76 92 78 91 79 91 / 20 40 30 30 30 40 20 20 Evergreen 69 90 68 93 70 94 72 95 / 0 20 10 20 10 40 10 30 Waynesboro 69 91 70 94 69 96 72 97 / 0 10 0 10 0 20 0 20 Camden 69 89 68 92 69 94 72 96 / 0 10 0 10 10 20 0 20 Crestview 69 92 69 94 71 95 72 96 / 10 40 10 30 20 50 10 40 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 2 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ263>265. High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204- 206. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ631-632. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
