BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 2:40 AM EDT857
FXUS61 KBOX 050640
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
240 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers or thunderstorms are possible each afternoon in
western New England through Thursday, otherwise dry weather,
seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity is expected
through the end of the week. Wildfire smoke lingers today, but
should not be as noticeable. Warming trend this weekend into
early next week with the potential for 90 degree heat and
increasing humidity returning Sunday into Monday. Dry weather
continues this weekend with a chance of showers or
thunderstorms Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Key Messages:
* A few showers or t-storms possible this afternoon/evening in
central/W MA and northern CT
High pres builds over the Maritimes today with light easterly
flow in place in the low levels. This will result in cooler
temps in the 70s along the eastern MA coast, but low-mid 80s
further inland. More cloud cover in the form of high clouds
expected with afternoon CU developing in the interior. Marginal
instability develops in western areas this afternoon with CAPES
up to 1000 J/kg possible so can't rule out a few showers or
t-storms from mid afternoon to early evening, mainly west of
FIT-ORH-WST within a plume of higher theta-e air.
Near surface smoke is forecast to be less than yesterday so smoke
should be less noticeable today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Quiet tonight with seasonable temps
* Mainly dry and a bit cooler Wed, low risk for shower/t-storm W MA
Tonight...
Low risk for an evening shower or t-storm in western half SNE,
otherwise, dry and seasonably cool conditions tonight. Will have to
watch for possible development of patchy stratus and fog. Lows upper
50s to lower 60s.
Wednesday...
High pres builds east of New Eng with low level easterly flow
persisting. Cooler temps expected as low levels cool a bit leading
to highs ranging from mid 70s eastern MA coast to lower 80s CT
valley. Marine influence should keep better instability focused to
the north and west where best chance of convection, so expecting
mainly dry conditions. Just a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm in
western MA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Mainly dry and seasonable through Friday, but an isolated shower
or t-storm possible in western MA Thursday
* Warming trend this weekend into early next week. 90+ degree temps
possible by Sunday-Monday with increasing humidity
* Chance of showers/t-stotrms return Monday
High pres will dominate the weather through the weekend bringing
mainly dry conditions. The only chance of precip through Sunday will
be Thu afternoon as marginal instability and moisture may lead to a
few interior showers or t-storms. Temps will be seasonably warm Thu-
Fri, then a warming trend this weekend into early next week as upper
level ridge builds over New Eng and high pres moves offshore with
increasing SW flow developing. EPS and GEFS ensemble guidance show
increasing probs of 90+ degrees Sunday and Monday. Humidity levels
should be manageable through Saturday as PWATs remain near normal,
with dewpoints mostly in the 50s. Then becoming more humid Sun into
Mon as increasing PWAT plume allows dewpoints to climb through the
60s. The increasing heat and humidity will lead to chance of
showers/t-storms by next Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z Update...
Through 12z...
Mainly VFR, but patchy fog developing in typically fog prone
locations. Also, low risk for patchy stratus developing across
SE MA.
Today...High confidence.
VFR, but low risk for patchy stratus across east coastal MA and
Cape Cod. Isolated late day/evening showers or t-storms possible
across western MA and northern CT. NE winds around 10 kts.
Minor vsby reductions possible due to smoke/haze.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR, but patchy stratus and fog may develop across
Cape/Islands and SE coastal MA. Light NE wind.
Wednesday...High confidence.
VFR. Low risk for a spot shower or t-storm across NW MA. E wind
up to 10 kt.
KBOS terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night through Friday Night: VFR.
Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Wednesday...High confidence.
High pres will bring quiet boating conditions through Wed with
persistent E-NE flow below 20 kt and seas below SCA.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.
Thursday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC
MARINE...KJC
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 2:40 AM EDT----------------
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