MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 6:24 AM CDT ...New Aviation...333
FXUS64 KMOB 051124
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
624 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025
The soggy pattern continues for southern and eastern half of the
area, while our northern (especially northwestern) portion of our
area stays generally dry. Southwesterly flow aloft continues through
early on Wednesday as a trough slowly meanders across the region,
sandwiched between a ridge to our west and to our east. Moisture
continues to surge into the area, especially across the coastal
counties where a weak front hovers nearby, with PWATs hovering in
the 2.0-2.4 inch range. The weak front will focus convective
activity across the coastal counties and generally across the
eastern portion of the area (east of I-65) through mid-week. While
we are not concerned about severe storms in this pattern, we do
remain concerned about the continued threat for minor flooding as
slow-moving storms repeatedly move over the same locations. Storms
over the past few days have been efficient rainmakers, producing 2-3
inches of rain in a short-period of time - this trend will continue
into Tuesday and potentially Wednesday.
While we started the week soggy, we will eventually transition
toward more of a summertime convective pattern later in the week.
The pattern may attempt to get slightly more active again late in
the weekend and into early next week as an inverted upper level
trough potentially pivots westward toward the Gulf. Some of the
guidance shows a slug of moisture associated with this feature
sliding into the area by early next week.
Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains MODERATE today and tonight
for northwest Florida beaches while MODERATE just today for our
Alabama beaches. The risk remains LOW for the remainder of the work
week. 07/mb
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025
IFR to LIFR flight category prevails across the region to start
the morning. Showers and storms will continue to gradually shift
onshore similar to the prior mornings evolution, keeping a good
chunk of the area socked into IFR to LIFR ceilings through mid
morning. MVFR to VFR flight category should return to much of the
area by late morning into the afternoon hours as morning storms
diminish in coverage, with perhaps some localized reductions in
ceiling or visibility in the afternoon underneath any redeveloping
storms across the area. Winds remain out of the northeast at 5 to
10 knots today, becoming light and variable tonight. MVFR to IFR
ceilings are once again expected to return overnight tonight,
similar to how the previous couple nights have evolved. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025
A weak front continues to hover near the coast and out over the
Gulf early this week. Winds will vary in direction with the
nearby front but wind speed looks generally light. In addition to
winds and seas higher near storms, reductions in visibility are
likely in heavy rains and frequent lightning will also pose a
hazard to recreational and commercial boating interests. 07/mb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 88 72 90 72 91 72 90 73 / 70 40 70 30 70 20 60 30
Pensacola 88 76 90 75 90 74 89 74 / 70 50 70 40 70 40 70 40
Destin 89 77 90 77 91 76 89 76 / 70 50 70 40 70 50 70 40
Evergreen 87 70 90 70 91 69 90 70 / 80 40 60 20 50 20 50 20
Waynesboro 88 70 91 69 91 69 90 69 / 50 20 40 10 40 10 40 10
Camden 86 70 89 70 89 69 87 70 / 60 30 50 20 40 10 40 10
Crestview 88 72 90 71 91 71 89 70 / 80 40 80 30 70 30 70 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 6:24 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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