PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 12:54 AM EDT707
FXUS61 KPBZ 070454
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1254 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather favored as temperature slowly rises towards above
normal values this weekend. The above normal temperature may
linger through next week prior to the return of areawide shower
and thunderstorm chances.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Abundant sunshine expected with seasonable temperature.
---------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure covering the New England region will continue to
influence the upper Ohio River Valley today. There is high
confidence in: a few to scattered diurnal cumulus, dry weather
for most of the region, occasional afternoon gusts out of the
east around 15 to 20 mph, and slightly above normal temperature.
Subtle moisture advection from the Atlantic within the lower
level easterly flow may be enough to spawn an isolated shower
over the eastern high terrain of Tucker County, aided by the
easterly upslope flow. But dry, warm air aloft and minimal jet
support is more likely to keep even this region dry.
Overnight conditions will remain dry with enough easterly flow
to limit strong radiational cooling that leads to valley fog.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- High pressure continues the recent dry trend.
- Temperature will rise above normal over the weekend, but
limited moisture should keep heat indices below criteria.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Ensemble members show high confidence in subtle height rises
across the eastern CONUS as troughing deepens over the far
northern Great Plains Friday through Sunday. The result is a
continuation of high probability (greater than 90%) of rain-free
days during this period while temperature slowly climbs around 5
to 10 degrees above the daily average. Due to the lack of
notable surface flow (and potential moisture advection), area
humidities will remain low during daytime hours and help keep
heat indices around 10 degrees below hazard criteria (which
starts at 100 degrees).
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Above normal temperature favored to start Monday.
- Rain chances increase areawide Tuesday and Wednesday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The focus on potential pattern changes next week will be on the
evolution of the previously mentioned far northern Great Plains
trough that is favored to move eastward Monday through
Wednesday. Cluster analysis of weather models suggests there is
slight variations in trough amplitude and timing that will play
a role in when the forecast area may see the next chance for
widespread showers/thunderstorms.
Current consensus favors some moisture influx ahead of the
trough Monday that may allow for isolated convection to approach
far eastern Ohio zones or over the WV higher terrain. Otherwise,
dry and seasonably warm conditions persist Monday. Then, gradual
eastward progression of the trough creates widespread chances
Tuesday/Wednesday with diurnal temperature ranges decreasing
(slightly lower max and slightly higher min). The most likely
deviation from this consensus is likely a more pessimistic
outlook on precipitation chances and more of a continuation of
temperature profiles seen Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High confidence VFR under the influence of high pressure and
ridging through the TAF period.
Flow around the surface high will lead to occasionally gusty
east wind, favoring that afternoons, that reach 15 to 20kts.
Additionally, upslope moisture convergence may allow for
scattered VFR cigs to develop during the early morning hours
near LBE and DUJ (with 20-30% probability for MVFR heights at
DUJ).
Outlook...
Upslope flow may continue to produce scattered to broken cigs
near LBE/DUJ Friday morning. Otherwise, there is high confidence
in VFR with a few to scattered diurnal cu through the weekend.
The next widespread precipitation chance is not favored until
Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frazier
NEAR TERM...Frazier
SHORT TERM...Frazier
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...Frazier
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 12:54 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
