IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 7:28 AM EDT298
FXUS63 KIWX 051128
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
728 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible south of US 30
today, mainly in the afternoon.
- Dry Wednesday through Saturday then chances for thunderstorms
Sunday through Tuesday.
- Highs in the 80s through Monday. Heat indices around 90 to 95
Friday through Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025
At the onset, a 1030 mb high pressure area was over southern
Quebec. This system was causing a northeast to east surface
flow into and across the Great Lakes region.
A large anomalously strong upper level ridge will build northeast
into the upper Great Lakes region. The latest GFS run (5/00Z)
amplifies this ridge 200 meters Wednesday over areas north of Lake
Superior into James Bay and south Hudson Bay. This will set up a
temporary upper level block in the atmosphere and allow very warm
to return to the Midwest including the forecast area. ECMWF EFI
(Extreme Forecast Index) indicates high temperatures will be in
the 60th to 80th percentile. Actual forecast highs in the upper
80s appear on track. At this time, afternoon heat indices
Friday through Monday will be around 90 to 95. These values are
slightly below advisory criteria, so plan to mention these in
the Hazardous Weather Outlook product.
As for thunderstorms, the environment will be generally
unfavorable for storms through Saturday with the upper level
ridge in the vicinity. Better chances for storms will be early
next week as some energy tops the upstream ridge and moves into
a very unstable airmass.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 707 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025
Predominantly VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites
today, with mid-high level clouds moving in from the southwest.
Variable winds will eventually strengthen out of the east-
southeast and remain light. As of this writing IFR/MVFR
visibilities are being reported at both terminals (3-4SM) but
expect this to burn off no later than 13z. Have a tempo for this
until 13z. There could be some afternoon showers and storms,
though these are expected to remain largely south of US 30 so
left out of the TAF for this issuance. BR is possible at the
terminals overnight once again, mainly after 9-10z Wed AM.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-
203-204-216.
OH...None.
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ078>081-
177-277.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...MCD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 7:28 AM EDT---------------
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