MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 3, 12:55 PM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...754
FXUS64 KMOB 031755
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1255 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025
A soggy and unsettled weather pattern continues as we open up the
work week. The forecast area is postioned at the base of the broad
trough of low pressure at high levels east of the MS River. This
trough moves little as it is sandwiched between two high pressure
systems, one over TX and the other off the southeast US coast
through at least the middle of the week. At the surface, a quasi-
stationary front is draped from off the southeast US coast, west
southwest to the central Gulf coast to off the LA coast and will
meander in place the next several days. Deep Gulf moisture with
PWAT's ranging 1.8 to 2.3" remain aligned over the front and coupled
with the passage of mid- level impulses rounding the base of the
mean trough position favors increased probabilities of showers and
storms through the course of the next several days. The boundary
will serve to focus convective activity with the higher rain chances
favored generally across the eastern portion of the area (along/east
of I-65 corridor to the Gulf coast) the next few days. Severe
weather threat remains low although forecasters cannot rule out a
few strong storms in the late afternoon hours. The main concern is
the potential for heavy rains which could prove problematic where
slower storm motions could yield to flooding in lower lying and
urbans areas subject to poor drainage. A slight risk of excessive
rainfall has been expanded a bit west through Monday morning to
include areas along and east of I-65 while a marginal risk is in
place elsewhere. Monday and Tuesday, a marginal risk of excessive
flooding rains is outlooked generally along and east of I-65. We
follow the thinking of the previous shift in electing to not issue a
Flood Watch at this time as convection remaining isolated to
scattered over the past couple days has not caused widespread over-
saturation of soils. That said, a few small short-fuse flood
advisories/flash flood warnings are possible. As we roll into Monday
and Tuesday, we will need to keep an eye on parts of northwest
Florida (perhaps also parts of south-central Alabama) where a few
days of storms repeatedly producing 1-2 inches or rain may lead to
greater flash flooding concerns. At least, with the cloud cover and
coverage of showers/storms, temperatures will be kept more in check.
Beach Forecast - Forecasters will maintain a MODERATE risk of rip
currents Monday night into Tuesday. The latest rip current
probabilistic data though, from 03.12Z, shows the risk has lowered
for this time frame and a downward adjustment is possible on later
forecasts for Monday night into Tuesday. /10
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025
West of the I-65 corridor this morning VFR flight category
generally prevails while along and east of there MVFR to IFR
flight category is prevalent with low ceilings and fog. Ceilings
and visibility will improve over the next couple hours, returning
back to VFR flight category for all locations. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms return late this morning into the
afternoon hours, particularly along and east of the I-65 corridor
which could temporarily reduce flight category. Winds remain
generally out of the north to north- northeast through the morning
hours less than 5 knots, with winds turning northeasterly to
easterly for south-central Alabama during the afternoon and
southerly nearer the coast in association with the sea breeze
around 5 to 10 knots. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025
A stalled front remains positioned over the coastal waters to open
up the work week. Winds will likely vary in direction across the
boundary but wind speed looks to be light. A light wind flow of
variable direction is expected the remainder of the week. Little
change in seas. Note: Winds and seas will likely be higher in and
near storms. Reductions in visibility likely in heavy rains and
frequent lightning will pose a hazard to recreational and commercial
boating interests. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 73 87 72 88 73 90 72 91 / 50 80 60 80 50 70 30 70
Pensacola 76 87 76 87 77 90 75 90 / 70 80 70 90 50 70 40 70
Destin 78 86 78 88 78 90 77 90 / 80 90 70 90 50 70 50 70
Evergreen 72 86 71 87 70 90 70 91 / 50 80 60 90 50 70 30 60
Waynesboro 72 88 70 89 70 91 69 91 / 20 50 40 70 30 60 20 50
Camden 70 83 70 85 70 89 70 89 / 40 70 50 80 40 60 30 50
Crestview 73 85 73 87 72 90 72 91 / 70 90 70 90 50 80 40 80
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 3, 12:55 PM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...---------------
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