JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 5:44 PM EDT054
FXUS63 KJKL 052144
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
544 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a possibility of showers and thunderstorms at times
through the next week, mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours on most days.
- Our ongoing break from the heat and humidity continues through
Wednesday before temperatures warm late week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 543 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
Initial convective precip popped up from around KIOB and KFGX
westerward to southern IN. This area appears largely worked over
now, with activity having shifted outside of the original area,
but especially to the north. Have updated the forecast to reflect
this. Have also allowed for the POP to drop off a little faster
as we progress into the night, in line with the latest model
guidance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 234 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
An amplified mid-level trough axis currently situated over the Lower
Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions will move slowly east across the
area tonight and Wednesday, with another mid-level low/trough moving
southeast into the Lower Tennessee Valley Wednesday night.
Meanwhile, multiple weak upper disturbances will continue to push
across the area.
A broad area of weak instability centered across eastern Kentucky
tonight coupled with broad forcing for ascent necessitates at least
15 percent for hourly PoPs for most areas overnight tonight, with
showers and perhaps a lingering isolated evening thunderstorm.
Models indicate the potential for a bit more instability Wednesday
afternoon, with CAPE values of 1000 to as high as 2000 J/kg
possible, which would potentially result in a few more thunderstorms
compared to today, but that would be dependent on any sustained
clearing that can take place to tap into that potential. For now,
will go near NBM guidance with PoPs ranging from 30 percent in the
southwest to 50 to 60 percent in the far eastern and northeastern
parts of the CWA.
Lows tonight and Wednesday night will likely most fall into the
lower to mid 60s, with highs Wednesday in the lower to mid 80s,
about 2 to 3 degrees warmer than today's forecast highs.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
The NBM continues to well represent the consensus forecast for this
pattern with only some small changes warranted - generally just some
hints of terrain distinction each night.
Weak flow aloft persists for much if not all of the extended period,
with eastern Kentucky on the far fringes of the transient mid-
latitude wave pattern to the north and subtropical high(s)
situated for much of the period either to the southwest or well to
the south and east, though on the whole mid-level heights do rise
gradually through the period. The lack of proximity to the
centers of any mid-level/upper ridging will allow for near daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and early
evening, with little significant change day-to-day in
temperatures, though as mid- level heights rise into the weekend
and early next week the chances for 90 degrees for highs in the
warmest locations increases. Overnight lows will mostly remain in
the 60s, but may begin to reach near or slightly above 70 degrees
early next week as those mid-level heights increase.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
MVFR to VFR conditions at TAF issuance time will quickly become
all VFR by ~19z to 20z as lower clouds continue to lift and
scatter out with decreasing stability due to surface heating. Will
carry PROB30 groups for convection this afternoon into the early
evening, with brief reductions to MVFR or lower conditions with
this activity. Fog may also be a concern coming out of the
valleys later tonight into Wednesday morning, especially where it
rains this afternoon into early evening. Winds will be light and
variable through the period - away from any storms.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 5:44 PM EDT---------------
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