MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 12:37 PM CDT ...New Aviation...366
FXUS64 KMOB 021737
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025
An upper high pressure area will remain centered over the Desert
Southwest throughout the forecast. A weak upper trough will reside
over our region over the weekend, followed by a stronger medium
amplified upper trough digging over much of the eastern CONUS and
northern Gulf through next week. A surface frontal boundary across
the forecast area will slip just south of the coast tonight and
stall, then lift back north and slowly dissipate through early
next week. With persistent weakness aloft, enhanced daily rain
chances will continue throughout the forecast. Activity will
generally follow a typical diurnal pattern, with showers and
thunderstorms developing during the morning over our marine zones
and along the coast, and then spread inland throughout the day
with scattered to numerous coverage of showers and thunderstorms
by early afternoon. Showers and storms will then linger through at
least mid-evening before dissipating. We can't rule out a few
strong storms with gusty winds, frequent lightning, as well as
very heavy rainfall.
With the stronger medium amplified upper trough over our area
early next week, we expect some cooler temperatures. Highs are
expected to drop into the low/mid 80s northeast of a Butler to
Crestview line Monday and Tuesday, with upper 80s to around 90
degrees across the remainder of the forecast area. A LOW risk of
rip currents will continue through early next week. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025
General VFR conditions with local drops to mid level MVFR in
developing convection were noted at 17z. Am expecting the
convection to increase in coverage and strength through the
afternoon, with general movement to the northeast. Coverage and
strength of the convection will decrease over land this evening,
with the loss of the day's heat. Redevelopment south of the coast
is expected towards sunrise, with areas along the coast possible
affected.
/16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025
A light westerly to southwesterly flow today will become variable
along the coast through the remainder of the weekend as a frontal
boundary slips just south of the coast and stalls. A light onshore
flow will follow through the middle of next week. Seas will remain
generally 2 feet or less. /22
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 12:37 PM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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