IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 31, 12:16 PM EDT683
FXUS63 KIWX 311616
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1216 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler and less humid weather Friday into this weekend.
- Dangerous swim conditions are expected along the beaches of
southeastern lake Michigan primarily in LaPorte county into
the start of the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025
Rather disjointed radar mosaic as a weak deformation zone band
of lighter precip extended from Gary, IN northeast into
southern lower Michigan with overall precip rates under a tenth
per hour as lowering dewpoints (low 60s) continue to advect in
from the NE. Further south, an area of rain/rainshowers and an
embedded storm or 2 (most recently east of Marion) was rooted in
the deeper moisture (upper 60s to low 70s) with highly variable
rainfall rates (mainly a quarter inch or less, but stronger
returns across Grant to Jay counties upwards of 0.5 to 1"/hr.
CAMs continue to show an uptick in coverage should occur, but
confidence is lessening as dewpoints across NW Ohio are already
starting to drop (mid 60s) and this should shift SW into the
larger area of precip. Pops have been adjusted to reflect trends
and thunder chances confined to southern areas although models
all agree on negligible instability by 12Z and beyond. Stratus
is likely to linger for a while, but clearing should commence in
NW areas and progress SE through the day. Although dewpoints
will be slowly lowering, 850 mb temps will only drop slightly
with the main push of colder and drier air not arriving till
tonight into the weekend. As a result, the faster clearing may
allow NW areas to end up warmer for highs today than SE spots
under the cloud cover.
The persistent NE flow and somewhat stronger wind flow over
southern Lake Michigan has resulted in higher waves, especially
along the shores of LaPorte county where the Michigan City buoy
showed a peak of around 8 foot waves this past evening and
current highs averaging between 6 and 7 feet with 6 second
periods. Although winds will diminish slightly with time, the
extended period of time for the flow will result in a
continuation of dangerous swim conditions for LaPorte county
beaches with a somewhat lesser (moderate) risk for the Berrien
county shores. The Beach Hazard Statement has been extended
through 09Z Fri to account for this concerns.
Over the next days a long overdue transition to cool and much
less humid conditions will occur as high pressure builds from
the north. Overnight lows tonight will bottom out in the low to
mid 50s, with temperatures this "cold" not having been felt
since the first half of June. Afternoon highs will even end up
near to slightly below normal in the mid 70s to lower 80s into
Sunday. The upper level trough will linger through much of the
upcoming week. possibly shifting eastward toward the end of the
period. Although local model blend introduces some slgt chc to
chc pops as early as Tuesday, skeptical on these coming to
fruition as deeper moisture will remain well to our south.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025
Rapid clearing through this aftn in wake of upper disturbance
lifting out through nrn OH attm with VFR expected.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
INZ005-012>015-022-023-103-104-116-203-204-216.
Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ078>081-
177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for LMZ046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...T
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 31, 12:16 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
