[Alert]The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 31, 16:15z for portions of PBZ

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The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 31, 16:15z for portions of PBZ

372 
WUUS01 KWNS 311616
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025

VALID TIME 311630Z - 011200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02   39017469 39277538 39807595 40457610 40817541 40467372
       39447416 39017469
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05   37780513 38330565 39300585 41300621 41850684 42760883
       43220915 44580929 45181007 45131125 45721240 46091304
       46721381 47231437 48031422 48311305 47871152 46521017
       46050908 46110721 45780561 43690239 42120134 40350172
       38960287 38580349 37930459 37780513
0.15   39280547 40370568 41450590 42090666 43070802 44820852
       45290772 45040631 44170482 42690418 41380412 40380453
       39710479 39420511 39280547
&&

... WIND ...

0.05   37057540 37107819 37837977 39318099 40078075 40428030
       40787961 41317413 41257260 40277267
0.05   32669113 31899280 31509449 32719484 34009468 35829437
       36209399 36269231 35689084 34399022 33299052 32669113
0.05   48251293 47911158 46561023 46060906 46110725 45820574
       45040440 43720239 42090129 40360170 38940289 38470365
       37940463 38310532 40340567 41430592 41840682 42770882
       43200918 44620932 45181005 45131140 43831248 43021272
       42131319 41771409 42341638 43041691 44551728 46141673
       47191567 48051427 48251293
0.15   38387465 37947656 38157809 38987881 40277754 40677554
       40687466 40477411 40107356
0.15   44160482 41980337 40530356 39970410 39440507 40490522
       41910567 42880691 43450810 44660851 44840852 45260765
       45050640 44160482
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... CATEGORICAL ...

SLGT   38377463 37947654 38167808 38987880 40287751 40677554
       40687466 40477411 40097355
SLGT   45290772 45040631 44170482 41990337 40520357 39960409
       39420511 39280547 41450590 43070802 44820852 45290772
MRGL   35829437 36209399 36269231 35689084 34399022 33299052
       32669113 31899280 31509449 32719484 35829437
MRGL   37057534 37107818 37837975 39318097 40068075 40428030
       40797963 41307414 41247260 40197268
MRGL   46141673 47191567 48051427 48311305 47911158 46551020
       46060906 46110721 45780561 43720239 42090129 40360170
       38960287 37930459 37780513 38330565 41300621 41850684
       42760883 43200918 44600932 45181007 45131140 43831248
       43021272 42131319 41771409 42341638 43041691 44551728
       46141673
TSTM   31401258 31751272 32421298 32831312 33231285 33621211
       34051157 34571098 35540992 36490955 37710946 39370941
       40650932 41521060 42801107 42951116 43081158 43011214
       42771242 42051293 39891421 38991576 38791663 38891796
       39001892 39031997 39202050 39552094 39962101 40212165
       39792264 39722284 39922339 40782391 41822401 42202387
       42832341 43732326 44582282 45152251 45312220 45322179
       45452117 45612099 45792125 46082177 46362215 46592245
       47812249 49732196 99999999 49480924 48960522 48320364
       46280118 45590046 44769947 44359911 43659879 42319846
       41299831 39979789 38729725 38419682 38189649 37849464
       37559079 39408732 40888367 41807990 41957707 42007465
       41547224 41167022 40306918 99999999 27149683 29019641
       30029600 31659572 32679617 33329684 33519752 33369858
       33109990 33050089 33200158 33310224 33180314 32690404
       32020496 31390529 30880552 30460569

&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E
SBY 25 SSW NHK 20 E CHO 50 N SHD 35 W CXY ABE 25 W EWR 15 S EWR 40
SSE JFK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW
SHR 40 ENE SHR 35 ESE GCC 15 ENE BFF 30 NW AKO 45 ENE DEN 25 SSW DEN
45 SW DEN 15 NW LAR 20 E RIW 30 NE COD 50 NW SHR.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW
FYV 15 NE FYV 10 ENE FLP 15 SW JBR 40 W UOX 30 WSW GWO 55 E MLU 20
ENE IER 25 NE LFK 25 NNW GGG 15 SW FYV.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE
ORF 30 NNW AVC 30 E SSU 25 E PKB 10 SSW HLG PIT 35 NNW LBE 25 SSW
POU 30 E BDR 45 SSE ISP.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
LWS 30 SSW 3TH 20 S GPI 35 SW CTB 30 NNW GTF 20 WNW 3HT 30 NW BIL 65
ENE BIL 25 NNW 4BQ 40 SE RAP 10 WNW MHN 10 SSW IML 35 WSW ITR 25 SSW
PUB 45 ENE ALS 60 WSW COS 30 W LAR 20 E RWL LND 35 NW LND 15 WNW COD
40 SSE LVM 35 NNW WEY 30 NW IDA 10 NW PIH 40 SE BYI 55 SSE TWF 30
NNW OWY 50 SW BOI 35 SE BKE 20 SE LWS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 S GBN 80 S GBN 40
SSW GBN 25 WSW GBN 20 NNW GBN 15 NNW PHX 50 NNE PHX 35 SSW INW 60 NE
INW 75 SW CEZ 10 N 4BL 45 NNE CNY 20 NE VEL 30 NE EVW 50 WNW BPI 50
SSW JAC 40 SE IDA 25 ENE PIH 15 SE PIH 35 WSW MLD 55 NE ELY 40 SSE
P68 55 NNE TPH 55 SW U31 35 SSW NFL 10 N TVL 35 NW TVL 60 W RNO 65 E
RBL 30 E RBL 30 SW RBL 45 SW RBL 55 N UKI 10 E EKA 10 ENE CEC 25 ENE
4BK 40 NW MFR 25 S EUG 25 SSE SLE 30 ENE SLE 25 SE PDX 35 SW DLS 10
S DLS 10 E DLS 10 NNW DLS 45 NW DLS 55 SE OLM 35 SE OLM 25 NNW SEA
70 NNE BLI ...CONT... 70 NNE HVR 60 NNE OLF 10 N ISN 40 SSW BIS MBG
50 ENE PIR 40 NNE 9V9 30 ESE 9V9 15 SE ONL 20 N GRI 35 NNW CNK 20
ESE SLN 35 W EMP 20 WSW EMP 45 ENE CNU 25 SW FAM HUF 10 S FDY 25 SE
ERI 20 SSW ELM 20 NNE MSV 20 NW GON 10 SW ACK 80 SE ACK ...CONT...
60 SE CRP 20 NNW PSX 45 SSE CLL 50 ESE CRS 40 ESE DAL 30 SSW GYI 50
N FTW 40 S SPS 50 NNW ABI 65 NNE BGS 35 SSE LBB 35 SW LBB 35 N HOB
30 NNE CNM 15 NW GDP 40 SW GDP 80 SSW GDP 100 W MRF.

Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 31, 16:15z for portions of PBZ

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