PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 31, 7:39 AM EDT179
FXUS61 KPBZ 311139
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
739 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Organized storms expected this afternoon with a passing cold
front, damaging winds and heavy rain is the main threat. Cool
and dry weather returns for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Isolated shower activity near I-80 this morning
- Patchy fog possible
- Organized storms expected to develop early afternoon, ahead
of a cold front
---------------------------------------------------------------
A passing disturbance that brought heavy rain and damaging
winds near the shores of Lake Erie is quickly weakening as it
slowly tracks into northwestern Pennsylvania. With the mean flow
directed east to west, expect a cluster of rain showers near
I-80 over the next 1 to 3 hours.
Isolated fog, where noted clearing is located, is expected south
of Pittsburgh early this morning due to radiational cooling.
A cold front will begin its approach our region this afternoon.
The front will likely cross through northwest Pennsylvania, in
the late morning, stretch east-west intersecting Pittsburgh
mid- day, then continue its passage through the southwest PA,
southeast OH, and northern WV into the late evening.
The joint probability of organized storms, which includes effective
shear and instability, is limited to areas south and southeast
of Pittsburgh this afternoon. Damaging winds will be the primary
threat with lingering elevated dry air prompting higher DCAPE
values (+600J/kg). Weaker shear near the surface (less than
10kts) will likely keep the tornado threat low. The best time
period for strong to severe storms will likely be between 12pm
to 5pm.
With storms progressing along the front, the threat for flooding
will be limited to areas that receive training of high rainfall
rates.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Widespread to scattered storm chances will decrease after 7pm
- Comfortable conditions expected Friday
----------------------------------------------------------------
As the front tracks east, expected precipitation coverage to
decrease after 7pm through 11pm this evening. A few isolated
showers may lingering along the Laurel Highlands early Friday
morning.
Confidence in foggy conditions early Friday is low with
potential breezy conditions.
If showers redevelop during the day on Friday, it will likely be
along the ridges of West Virginia with some weak low-level
convergence. With increasing mid-level subsidence, expect
shower intensity to be weak.
Below average temperatures are expected Friday and Friday night
in the wake of a cold front.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Pattern shift supports cooler conditions over the weekend into
early next week
- Severe storm potential remains low
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The majority of weather models agree that a trough will cover
the Ohio River Valley this weekend, making near to below-
average temperatures probable until early next week.
In addition to the lower temperature, machine learning predicts
a 5% or lower probability of severe weather occurring in our
area during this period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold front will slowly drop across the area today. Ceilings will
quickly lower from north to south after 12z as rain gradually
shifts southward into the area in advance of the front.
Uncertainty remains in the timing of morning showers, but these
will likely stay north of PIT through the morning. Iso/sct
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the
front after 16z. Coverage and location of this activity is also
uncertain, but greatest probability remains tethered to the
ridges and locations south and east of PIT. Opted to cover this
impact with PROB30 for most terminals.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will quickly end by around 00z,
though ceiling restrictions linger overnight. VFR may return to
FKL/DUJ as early as 06z with drier air advecting into the area
behind the front. The rest of the area likely won't see
improvement to VFR until Friday morning.
Outlook...
High confidence in a prolonged period of VFR (save for more
river valley steam fog) with dry weather Friday into the
weekend.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Cermak/Rackley
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 31, 7:39 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
