PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 30, 6:14 AM CDT954
FXUS63 KPAH 301114
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
614 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dangerous heat and humidity will continue one more day across
the entire region, but triple digit heat index values may
linger into Thursday for locations near the Arkansas and
Tennessee borders.
- A cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms late tonight
through Thursday.
- Much more comfortable temperature and humidity levels will
arrive Friday through the weekend.
- Heat and humidity will creep back to typical late summer
values early next week, along with a return of thunderstorm
chances.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025
Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025
One more day of dangerous heat and humidity is forecast today.
The stout 597dm H5 ridge is gradually becoming suppressed from
an approaching trough, but high temperatures will still reach
well into the 90s. Dew points will draw down a bit further
today. However, peak heat index values will still climb to
around 110 degrees, so no changes have been made to the ongoing
Extreme Heat Warning.
A cold front will make its approach into the area very late
tonight into Thursday, initiating isolated to scattered
thunderstorm activity. SPC has maintained a marginal risk for
the extreme northern parts of the forecast area for its Day One
Outlook, but right now it appears most of the thunderstorm
activity will actually occur on Thursday. While the region is
not currently under an outlook for severe thunderstorms on
Thursday, cannot rule out a few gusty storms as seen the last
two days. The slower arrival of the front will allow heat index
values to rise into the triple digits for areas along the
Arkansas-Tennessee border. Depending on cloud and precipitation
trends, another heat headline may need needed in these areas on
Thursday.
On Friday through the weekend, temperature and humidity levels
will be very pleasant for early August, with high temperatures
in the lower 80s Friday and Saturday and the middle 80s
Sunday. Dew point temperatures will be in the 60s, which will
feel very comfortable after this heat wave. By Monday,
southerly flow returns, and temperatures and dew points also
return to typical late summer values. Daily thunderstorm
chances will also return as H5 troughing increases over the
eastern CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025
Shallow (but locally dense fog) will mix away by 13-14z at CGI,
PAH, and MVN. Shallow fog will again be an issue at these
terminals late tonight as well. Otherwise, quiet conditions are
expected with SCT diurnal CU development with bases around
4000ft. Late in the period, widely scattered storms may impact
MVN, and a PROB30 group has been introduced here for the 06-12z
Thursday window. Winds will be light from the E-NE AOA 5 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening
for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DWS/SP
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 30, 6:14 AM CDT---------------
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