BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 28, 6:32 AM EDT889
FXUS61 KBOX 281032
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
632 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Elevated heat and humidity return today through Wednesday,
potentially dangerous if proper precautions aren't taken. Heat
Advisories have been posted for much of the region. A cold front
may bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms sometime
Wednesday and/or Thursday followed by much cooler/less humid
weather which will persist into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:
* Heat and humidity return today. Heat Advisory in effect.
* Highs in low-mid 90s for the interior. Cooler along coast.
Humidity will make it feel like mid-upper 90s.
Details...
A mid-level ridge pushes east into the region today with dry NW flow
aloft. 850mb temperatures warm back up to around 17-18C indicating a
considerable warm up from the weekend. Highs will likely range in
the upper 80s to mid 90s for the interior while the coastal areas
will stay cooler in the mid 80s from sea breezes/onshore flow.
Humidity becomes elevated today as well making it feel like 90 to
near 100F. A Heat Advisory will be in effect starting today for much
of southern New England (except Cape/Islands).
The HRRR/RAP show wildfire smoke aloft moving across the region
today. Surface observations early this morning have been reporting
in at at the surface under the inversion. Haze will be possible
today, especially this morning with some improvements later in the
morning with boundary layer mixing. This shouldn't impact high
temperatures significantly.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Patchy fog possible tonight, especially for Cape/Islands.
* Hottest day Tue with highs in 90s with humidity making it feel
like mid 90s to low 100s.
* Heat Advisory in effect through Wednesday.
Details...
Tonight:
Quiet evening expected under surface high pressure. Winds will be
light/calm with low temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70. Areas
of fog are possible overnight mainly for the Cape and Islands with a
risk expansion across the south coast and areas of SE MA. Could
again see smoke/haze from wildfire smoke tonight.
Tuesday:
Ensemble and deterministic guidance continue to indicate that
Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week, with 850mb temperatures
peaking around 20C and 925mb temperatures 25-27C. This will support
surface temperatures in the mid to upper 90s across much of southern
New England with the warmest temperatures likely in the valleys.
Cape/Islands will stay a bit cooler in the mid-upper 80s. Model
soundings show general mixing in the boundary layer with westerly
flow in the afternoon which should help mix out the "juicier"
dewpoints to some extent. Regardless, dewpoints will still be
elevated in the upper 60s, perhaps near 70 in some spots. Had to
make some small adjustments to dewpoints because they were a little
too high. This will make it feel more like upper 90s to low 100s. A
Heat Advisory will be in effect.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Heat Advisory in effect through Wednesday.
* Mostly dry this week with chance for showers/storms Wed/Thu
* Cooler/unsettled for the second half of week.
Tuesday, a weak shortwave trough moves through the flow aloft which
will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows a more substantial wave moving
through in the Weds-Thurs timeframe. Still uncertainty in the
details such as timing, precipitation chances/amounts. What makes
this wave also more substantial aside from increased precipitation
chances will be the cooler airmass pushing in behind it. This will
break the above normal temperatures from earlier in the week.
Ensemble guidance shows good agreement with a transition to even
below normal temperatures with highs cooled into the mid 70s to low
80s by Friday.
The mid-level pattern becomes more zonal into Wednesday. Higher
moisture moves in by Wednesday followed by the passage of a
shortwave trough Thursday. This will support increased chances for
showers and storms starting later Wednesday. There is still spread
among ensemble guidance in the details (timing/amounts). Overall
seeing a timeframe from late Wednesday through late Thursday with
potentially lingering showers across the Cape/Islands early Friday.
A drier and much cooler airmass moves in allowing for a break to the
heat/humidity. Ensemble guidance shows good agreement with a
transition to even below normal temperatures by Friday. Trending dry
and cool for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update:
Through 12z: Moderate confidence.
Update 10z...
Fog expected at BOS and Cape/Islands this morning. Fog should
scatter out/retreat offshore for BOS 14-16z. Cape and Islands
15-17z. Lower confidence for timing for the Cape/Islands as low
cloud may linger on and off through the early afternoon.
...
Generally MVFR in areas of stratus with areas of mist. IFR for
the Cape/Islands. Can't totally rule out brief IFR inland or
along the south coast close to PVD early this morning. Winds light
W/WNW.
Monday: High confidence. Moderate (for ACK stratus).
Sub-VFR stratus and patchy mist scatter/dissipate shortly after
sunrise to VFR conditions in most areas. Improvements will
likely trend a little slower for the Cape and Islands with
potential for the low clouds/mist to linger around the Cape and
Islands into the early afternoon. North winds 5-10 kt with
seabreezes at BOS. Haze possible from wildfire smoke today.
Monday Night: High confidence.
VFR for most. IFR-LIFR stratus and mist/fog possible for PVD
and Cape/Islands. N winds become light SW tonight.
Tuesday: High Confidence.
VFR. Light W/SW winds with potential for a sea breeze at BOS.
KBOS terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Generally VFR with
MVFR stratus nearby with patchy mist. Still some chance at IFR
ceilings to approach BOS from the east after 07z-11z. Higher
confidence in categorical improvement to VFR by 12z. Haze from
wildfire smoke is possible today which may cause slantwise vis
issues in the AM. Seabreezes today around 14-16z.
KBDL terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Some chance at IFR
after 07z otherwise VFR. Higher confidence in categorical
improvement to VFR 11-13z. Light northerly winds.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR.
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tuesday...High confidence.
A ridge of high pressure will setup to our west today/tonight. The
pressure gradient will remain weak enough to keep winds/seas
below small craft advisory thresholds through tonight. Patchy
fog possible over the waters. Light W/SW winds Tuesday less than
20 kts.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Patchy fog.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
for CTZ002>004.
MA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
for MAZ003>007-010>021-026.
RI...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
for RIZ001>007.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Mensch
NEAR TERM...Mensch
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...Mensch
MARINE...Mensch
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 28, 6:32 AM EDT----------------
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