IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 29, 7:18 PM EDT731
FXUS63 KIWX 292318
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
718 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Remaining hot and humid into Wednesday.
* Showers and thunderstorms expected Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday morning. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding the
primary threat. A few stronger storms with gusts to 50 mph
possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.
* Cooler and less humid weather Friday into this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025
Heat Advisory remains in effect this afternoon into early this
evening with heat indices making a run at the mid 90s to near 100
degrees on the northern fringes of an expansive subtropical ridge.
Mainly dry with light winds otherwise as slightly drier conditions
(MLCIN) in wake of yesterday's MCV outflow likely puts a cap on
convective development this afternoon/evening.
Shower and thunderstorm chances then increase into Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night as an upstream shortwave approaches
and dampens the ridge with a low level frontal zone sagging slowly
south into the area. Locally heavy rain and flooding appears to be
the primary threat as 2" plus pwat air advects into the baroclinic
zone with steering flow oriented parallel to the boundary.
Probabilistic data from ensembles and the NBM show about a
40-60% chance for more than 1" rainfall totals across most of
the area, mainly late Wednesday into Wednesday night. The
potential for moderate boundary layer destablization and 30 kts
of 0-6km shear magnitudes may be enough to support an isolated
severe storm (SPC Marginal Risk) near the surface boundary
Wednesday afternoon. Damaging winds the primary threat with
stronger cells.
Cooler and drier air definitely begins to make better inroads on
Thursday from north to south as the baroclinic zone shifts south in
response to high pressure building into the Great Lakes. Decreasing
rain chances and much cooler highs in the 70s expected. This
expansive high pressure systems then settles over the region Friday
into the weekend with pleasant weather.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 703 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025
VFR conditions expected through the remainder of this TAF
period. After 09z Wed, shallow patchy mist may lower vsbys
slightly especially just before sunrise near KFWA. An upper
level trough will begin to push into the region tomorrow and
will begin to bring in light rain showers near the end of this
TAF period for KSBN but additional rain and thunderstorms will
move in Wednesday evening shortly after this period with the
arrival of a cold frontal boundary system.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
OH...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ078>081-177-
277.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Andersen
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 29, 7:18 PM EDT---------------
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