LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 23, 6:30 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...455
FXUS64 KLIX 232330
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
630 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
Easterly wave/inverted trough moving westward across the eastern
Gulf to the south of Pensacola early this afternoon. This has
produced scattered convection over our coastal waters pretty much
all day, and now starting to see convection develop near the
Alabama-Mississippi border. The cirrus shield associated with the
convection has held temperatures down a bit to this point of the
day, but the shield is thinning out some, with most areas now in
the lower to middle 90s. Heat index values at most sites between
105 and 112 at 1 PM CDT.
The wave will be more fully over the area during the day on
Thursday. At this point, tropical development doesn't appear to be
likely, but that doesn't mean locally heavy rain won't be a
threat. Precipitable water values that were near 1.95 inches today
will be in the 2.25 to 2.4 range on Thursday. That is likely to
produce significantly better areal coverage of showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow, especially from the Interstate 10/12
corridors southward. The question at this point is with the timing
of convective development and resultant cloud cover. If the
convection were to wait until mid to late afternoon to develop, it
would signal the need for heat related headlines for the extreme
northwest portion of the CWA. Will hold off on advisories at this
time as the areas with the hottest forecast highs (mid 90s) will
also be the ones with the lowest dew points.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
Very high moisture levels will only slowly diminish on Friday and
Saturday as the waves move across coastal areas before ridging
builds back into the area from the east. By Saturday, precipitable
water values will be around 2 inches, falling into the 1.5 to 1.7
range Sunday and Monday. Areal coverage of showers/storms Friday
and Saturday should be fairly extensive before dropping back to
isolated/scattered for Sunday into early next week. While any
threat of widespread heavy rainfall looks relatively low,
instantaneous rainfall rates will likely briefly overwhelm
drainage in a few locations each day. Also looks pretty likely we
will be back into heat stress product issuances by Sunday or
Monday with highs in the mid and upper 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
VFR conditions across most terminals, with exception of KGPT where
convection is active. Convection will wane as daytime heating
diminishes. Convection is expected again tomorrow with
possibility in the early morning at near-coast terminals and again
from late morning through the evening hours across the area.
/Schlotz/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
Main threat to marine operations will be daily/nightly
thunderstorms, which will be most prevalent through Saturday,
especially during the late night and morning hours. Ambient winds
should remain below 15 knots except in the vicinity of
thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 76 94 74 88 / 20 80 30 80
BTR 78 94 77 89 / 20 80 40 90
ASD 75 90 75 89 / 50 80 60 90
MSY 81 91 79 90 / 40 90 60 90
GPT 77 89 77 88 / 60 90 60 80
PQL 75 89 75 89 / 60 90 60 90
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ066>070.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 23, 6:30 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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