MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 21, 6:45 AM CDT ...New Aviation...290
FXUS64 KMOB 211145
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
645 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
Upper ridging dominates the forecast to start the week allowing
for hot temperatures and generously isolated to scattered shower
and storm chances through Tuesday, best coverage east of the I-65
corridor. Afternoon highs warm quickly into the upper 90's to
near 100 today and Tuesday, with heat index values in the 100 to
110 range, warmest nearer the coast. Thanks to mid level dry air
rotating around the ridge into the forecast area, we should be
able to mix out afternoon dewpoints into the lower to middle 70's
for most locations. Some guidance even suggests portions of
interior counties potentially even seeing some upper 60's
dewpoints which should help temper heat indices to some extent. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of southeast Mississippi
into southwest Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Additional heat
advisories are probable for the day Tuesday and potentially
Wednesday as well for portions of the area.
As we head into mid to late week, upper ridging shifts northward
slightly and an inverted mid to upper trough travels from east to
west across the northern gulf coast. This will in turn ramp up
rain and thunderstorm chances substantially as we head into
Wednesday through Friday with scattered to numerous coverage of
storms expected each day. As the trough moves out of the area, we
return back to a more typical Summer time pattern for the weekend
with scattered to locally numerous afternoon showers and storms,
greatest coverage nearer the coast in association with the
afternoon sea breeze boundary. Additionally, with increasing
onshore flow the rip current risk will steadily rise late week. We
start today into tonight with a low risk for Alabama beaches and
a Moderate risk for Florida panhandle beaches before going to a
low risk Tuesday into Wednesday. As we head into Thursday the rip
current risk increases to a Moderate and by Friday a High risk.
MM/25
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period with
light westerly winds becoming southwesterly this afternoon. Winds
relax overnight. BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
Light to occasionally moderate westerly to southwesterly flow
today becomes westerly to northwesterly Tuesday. A light to
moderate easterly to southeasterly flow develops Wednesday
afternoon then becomes southerly by Friday. No impacts are
expected outside of higher winds and seas in or around any
thunderstorms. MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 96 76 98 77 95 76 90 76 / 10 0 30 10 70 50 80 30
Pensacola 93 79 96 79 90 78 89 78 / 20 10 40 20 80 50 80 40
Destin 92 81 93 80 90 79 88 81 / 30 10 40 30 80 50 80 40
Evergreen 97 75 98 76 93 75 90 74 / 10 10 30 20 70 40 70 30
Waynesboro 96 74 98 75 94 74 92 73 / 10 0 10 10 50 30 60 20
Camden 96 75 97 76 93 75 91 74 / 10 10 20 10 50 30 60 20
Crestview 97 75 98 76 93 75 90 75 / 30 10 50 30 80 40 90 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for ALZ052-059-261>266.
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for FLZ201>206.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 21, 6:45 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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