LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 23, 7:22 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...468
FXUS63 KLMK 231122
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
722 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Heat and humidity increase today, with highs over much of the next
week in the low-to-mid 90s. Take heat-related precautions if you
must be outdoors during the hottest part of the day.
* Mainly dry conditions over the next several days, with
widespread chances for showers and storms returning this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025
Early this morning, dry conditions are present across central KY as
nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows scattered cirrus
streaming across the region. River valley fog can also be seen
across south central KY, with KY Mesonet cameras confirming patchy
fog in the Cumberland River valley. Temperatures vary from west to
east as higher dewpoints have restrained cooling along and west of I-
65. Many locations across the KY Bluegrass are in the mid-to-upper
60s at this hour, with areas to the west in the low-to-mid 70s.
Temperatures will be on the increase today as upper-level ridging
builds from the lower Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley
this afternoon. The dewpoint gradient left behind by the backdoor
cold front yesterday will gradually wash out, though lower dewpoints
are still expected east of I-65 today. Would expect temperatures to
jump by 3-5 degrees across the area from highs yesterday, ranging
from 89-95 across the CWA. The heat advisory looks to be well-
positioned for the areas which have the best chance of reaching 105
heat index this afternoon, so no changes are needed there.
Unfortunately, winds will be pretty light, less than 5 mph for much
of the day, so the air mass will feel quite stagnant.
Warm temperatures and subsidence in the mid-levels should put a lid
on convection across most of the region today. The possible
exception would be down around Lake Cumberland, where slightly
better boundary layer-850 mb moisture and assistance from terrain
could produce a shower or storm this afternoon.
Tonight, mostly clear skies are expected, but temperatures will
struggle to cool as much given a warmer start. Low temperatures
Thursday morning are expected to range from near 70 degrees east of
I-75 to the mid-to-upper 70s west of I-65.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025
Thursday through Friday Night...
By Thursday morning, the apex of the upper-level ridge is expected
to reside along the Appalachians, with sfc high pressure extending
from the Carolinas northeastward into the north Atlantic. This will
allow for S/SW flow in the low-levels across the Ohio Valley,
advecting higher-moisture air into the region from a plume of rich
moisture over the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley.
Temperatures should be fairly similar to today, with highs reaching
the low-to-mid 90s. Increasing dewpoints will increase heat indices,
with a broader slice of the CWA likely to reach the mid-100s
Thursday afternoon. Areas from the Lake Cumberland area up to the
Bluegrass region are expected to have slightly lower dewpoints, as
low-level southerly flow coming off the Cumberland Plateau won't be
as moist as areas to the north and west. With heat indices expected
to reach the upper 90s and lower 100s in these areas, it doesn't
appear that a heat advisory will be needed at this time, though this
could change. West of a line from Scottsville to Frankfort, there is
enough confidence in sufficiently high dewpoints and temperatures
that we should be at least near advisory criteria Thursday
afternoon. In collaboration with surrounding offices, we'll go ahead
and issue a heat advisory for these areas. Regardless of whether or
not there is an advisory, it will be important to take heat-related
precautions over the next few days.
Thursday afternoon, isolated single-cell showers and storms are
expected to develop as greater low-level moisture will lower
convective temps. With weak deep layer shear in place, any showers
and storms should be of the "up and down" variety and will be very
slow moving.
After a mild and muggy night Thursday night, another hot and humid
day is expected on Friday. A series of shortwave disturbances moving
across the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday will break down
the north side of the upper ridge, and will help to bring a cold
front down into northern IL/IN/OH. The greatest moisture and
shower/storm chances will be confined to the vicinity of the front,
but an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon
and evening. Temperatures will be fairly similar to Thursday, with
highs in the low-to-mid 90s and afternoon heat indices in the low-to-
mid 100s.
The Weekend into Early Next Week...
The core of the upper ridge will have shifted over the Carolinas and
Georgia by Saturday morning, but is then expected to build back to
the northwest through the weekend and into early next week. The cold
front to the north of our area on Friday looks increasingly likely
to wash out before sinking into the lower Ohio Valley, and the
weekend looks drier and a bit warmer than in previous model runs.
Still, with relatively high PWATs in place and some weakening in the
mid- and upper-level ridge possible, we'll continue to carry
isolated-to-scattered afternoon and evening showers and storm
chances in the forecast. Highs should remain in the low-to-mid 90s
over the weekend, with lows in the mid-to-upper 70s.
With the upper-level ridge currently expected to continue to build
over the Plains as we head into early next week, no immediate relief
is in sight from the hot and humid weather. Precipitation chances
are also favored to decrease for the first part of next week as
subsidence increases beneath the reinvigorated ridge. Ensemble
guidance does favor a westward shift in the core of the upper ridge
by mid-to-late next week, which could provide some relief; however,
confidence is low at this amount of lead time.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 721 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025
VFR conditions are expected to continue throughout the current
forecast period, although some brief patchy fog is possible at RGA
and BWG this morning. Light winds are expected today and tonight,
with speeds generally 6kts or less at all forecast sites.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
Thursday for KYZ023>035-038-039-045-053-061>063-070>074.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ029>031.
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
KYZ023-024-026-027-061-062-070>073.
IN...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
Thursday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ077>079-
090>092.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ083-089.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...SRW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 23, 7:22 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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