ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 21, 12:57 AM EDT004
FXUS61 KILN 210457
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1257 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will continue to move across locations generally near and south
of the Ohio River overnight and into Monday. Drier conditions then
work into the region with a warming trend in the middle of the week.
An active weather pattern will return for Friday into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cancelled the northern portions of the flood watch and kept locations
near and south of the Ohio River where there is either widespread
rain, flood products, or the potential still for flooding. Already
seeing some visibility restrictions north of this area and have
patchy fog in across northern portions of the region. Low
temperatures will range from the low 60s across the north to the low
70s across the south.
On Monday, rain will linger across the south before tapering off.
Temperatures will generally range from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Much cooler conditions will be in place Monday night with lows in the
middle 50s to middle 60s. Dry conditions will be in place with mostly
clear skies. Dry conditions continue for Tuesday with highs in the
80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure centered over New England Tuesday night will
slowly shift off the Atlantic coast later in the week. Surface winds
on the back side of the high will begin to bring deeper moisture back
into the CWA late Wednesday into Thursday. At this same time, mid-
level heights will rise in response to a ridge building northeast
into the Ohio Valley. This will cause anomalous heat and heat
indices, particularly for Thursday and Friday. Have adjusted NBM
dewpoints down a little using CONSALL guidance... but the grids still
yield near headline levels. Will bolster HWO wording a bit and
continue to monitor run-to-run.
The ridge will begin to flatten some heading into the weekend as
disturbances begin to dig a bit into the Great Lakes states. This
will provide a better chance of showers and storms to close the
extended period.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCVG and KLUK are on the northern edge of the more widespread
rainfall. Continue shra mention there for the first part of the TAF
period. In addition have a tempo shra in at KILN for more isolated
activity. While a very isolated shower cannot be ruled out at KDAY,
KCMH, and KLCK, due to the low probability and isolated nature kept
any precipitation mention out at those locations. Later in the
overnight and into the daytime morning hours there will be the
potential for some MVFR cigs with stratus at KCVG and KLUK. In
addition, KCMH and KLCK will also have the potential for some stratus
along with some MVFR fog as well overnight. During the day on Monday
expect cu to be present. A few pop up showers will be possible around
KCVG and KLUK later in the afternoon, however confidence was not high
enough to include in the TAFs. Skies will clear out Monday night.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT Monday for OHZ077>079-081-088.
KY...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT Monday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT Monday for INZ066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 21, 12:57 AM EDT---------------
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