PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 20, 7:47 PM CDT812
FXUS63 KPAH 210047
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
747 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heat indices will top out from 105 to 110 this afternoon and
again each afternoon through Thursday for southwest portions
of the Quad State. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect in
those areas due to 4 previous days of similar conditions and
continued extreme heat each afternoon.
- Heat Advisory conditions will continue through Thursday (Heat
Index Values approaching 105) outside of the Extreme Heat
Warning areas; however, thunderstorm activity leads to less
certainty.
- The interstate 64 corridor is in a Flood Watch tonight through
Monday. Showers and storms with heavy rainfall are expected to
increase across the Evansville Tri State tonight and
especially Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 747 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
For the ongoing heat headlines, decided to let the ongoing Heat
Advisory for the Interstate 64 corridor expire as scheduled.
It's increasing likely this area will be impacted by convection,
debris clouds, and outflow, which will keep heat index values
below Heat Advisory thresholds.
The rest of the Heat Advisory for parts of southeast Illinois,
northwest Kentucky, and the Kentucky Pennyrile have been
extended until 24z Thursday to match the Extreme Heat Warning.
Thunderstorm coverage will be low enough to temper the sticky
humidity and heat values here.
Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance is below.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
A surface boundary continues to linger near the I-64 corridor with a
line of deeper CU shown this afternoon on visible satellite imagery.
That boundary, along with an approaching shortwave from Missouri,
will lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage later this
evening through Monday morning. Precipitable water values are
progged to be around 2.5 inches in that general area, which is about
200 percent of normal and very supportive significant rainfall
rates. Again the main focus will likely be near the I-64 corridor
where very heavy rain fell over the past 24 hours. The combination
of saturated soils and very heavy rainfall potential supports the
continued Flash Flood Watch for those areas. No changes were made to
the area or the start/end times of the watch.
A surface boundary from the overnight thunderstorms is expected to
be draped across portions of west KY and southwest IN through
Tuesday helping to increase afternoon coverage of showers and
storms. That may help to keep cloud cover around for at least a
portion of those locations, making heat headlines a bit more tricky
east of the Mississippi River. The main change with this update was
to expand the Excessive Heat Warning to a few more counties into
southern Illinois and to also extend the timing through Thursday
afternoon. Heat index values should easily reach 105+ for those
locations each afternoon. East of the Heat Warning, an Heat Advisory
will be needed each afternoon; however, thunderstorm activity and
cloud cover will likely limit the eastward extent. To avoid a double
headline, opted to hold off on issuing the Heat Advisory on this
shift and will issue the new one on the evening shift.
As the ridge builds into the middle of the week, expect the heat and
humidity to continue across the with less shower and storm coverage
each day, especially Wednesday into Thursday. That will likely change
for Friday into Saturday as a couple waves come through...helping to
flatten the ridge only slightly. That should help to reintroduce at
least scattered afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 747 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
Main concern for the TAF period will the potential for
thunderstorm activity to impact MVN, EVV, and OWB through 06z
tonight and then again Monday afternoon. Have handled this with
PROB30 groups due to lower confidence. Some light MVFR fog is
possible during the predawn hours as well. Steady S-SW winds
will become variable due to thunderstorm outflow, then become
northerly around 5kts Monday afternoon.
Elsewhere quiet VFR conditions are expected with steady SW
winds around 4-8 kts and SCT diurnal CU.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-082-
083.
Flood Watch through Monday evening for ILZ075>078-082-083.
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ILZ080-081-
084-085-088-089-092>094.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ILZ086-087-090-091.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening for
INZ081-082-085>088.
Flood Watch through Monday evening for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for KYZ001>006-
008-009.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for KYZ007-010>022.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...DWS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 20, 7:47 PM CDT---------------
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