WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Jul 20, 7:33 PM CDT464
AGUS74 KWCO 210040
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #188 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
733 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Locally significant flash, urban, and small stream
flooding
WHERE: Northeast MO, central/southern IL, southern IN, western KY
WHEN: Through tonight
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPF: 2 - 4"+ (REFS/HRRR/WPC)
Rain Rates: 1 - 2"/hr (REFS/HRRR)
Soil Moisture: 45 - 60% (Relative Soil Moisture 0 - 10 cm, NASA
SPoRT)
Streamflows: Near normal (west) to above normal (east) (USGS)
DISCUSSION...
Hi-Res guidance suggests intense convective redevelopment across the
area of concern overnight, which will reintroduce flooding threats to
the region. Flooding impacts could be locally significant given the
potential for prolonged periods of heavy rainfall across areas that
have seen 1 - 4" of rain over the past 48 hours (central IL, southern
IL/IN, northwest KY). These regions are where soil content is highest
and streamflows are elevated heading into the overnight hours, and
where the potential for river flooding will be highest. Southern IN
and IL are currently seeing heavy rainfall which could produce
flooding impacts, and will prime the region for very efficient runoff
as soil infiltration capacity becomes minimal, all ahead of the
additional rounds of heavy rainfall late tonight.
The National Water Model (NWM) continues to indicate increasing
potential for rapid onset flooding across southern IL/IN with
probabilities creeping into the 50-75% range. There are only isolated
signals for flows with AEPs 10%, so widespread significant river
flooding is not expected, but locally significant small stream
responses are possible. NWM forecast rises across northeast MO are
minimal, likely due to the drier antecedent conditions in that
region, which is in line with expectations.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at
weather.gov/owp/operations
//JEC
ATTN...WFO...ILN...EAX...DVN...ILX...LOT...PAH...LSX...IND...LMK
ATTN...RFC...ORN...KRF...MSR...TIR...WPC
Source:
WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Jul 20, 7:33 PM CDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
