IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 19, 3:04 PM EDT734
FXUS63 KIWX 191904
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
304 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rapid storm development expected this afternoon over northern
Indiana. Damaging winds possible near and east of I-69.
- Best chances for thunderstorms after today are Sunday into
Sunday night, then Thursday afternoon into Friday.
- Another heatwave is likely Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
A broken line of storms with a few discrete cells ahead of the
main line had formed over northern Indiana. This fractured line
was originally an upstream MCS that had degenerated into an area
of rain with a few embeded storms. The best chance for anything
strong to severe should be southeast of Warsaw where cells will
be able to tap into an unmodified airmass. SPC mesoanalysis
shows a bulk shear maximum axis in the vicinity of the broken
line from White Co to Jay County (Monticello to Portland) where
the strongest storms in our area should form late this afternoon.
More storms are possible Sunday, but since the front had moved
south of the area, believe storms will not be severe given (1)
light wind flow and very limited shear in the lower layers, (2)
lack of surface convergence and (3) very limited/thin CAPE.
Another heat wave is slated to develop over the area during the
middle and latter part of this upcoming week. The hottest
temperatures are forecast for Thursday. Heat headlines are
likely to be eventually issued as this event nears.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
Upstream MCS has degenerated into rain with a few embeded
storms. Some convection was trying to get going near LAF, but
strong evidence storm development will be delayed with overcast
skies already over most of northern Indiana. Kept a window of
active storms this afternoon including SBN, but confidence is
building that there may not be thunder there (SBN). Kept
lingering thunderstorms at FWA. RAP and HRRR models keep FWA
active with a stream of energy topping the upstream ridge.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 19, 3:04 PM EDT---------------
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