[Alert]The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 18, 12:43z for portions of PBZ

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The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 18, 12:43z for portions of PBZ

913 
WUUS01 KWNS 181244
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025

VALID TIME 181300Z - 191200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02   41479669 41249876 41129991 41380070 41870066 42819979
       43859839 44959682 45179544 44799366 43629208 42629184
       41839220 41459306 41309446 41479669
0.05   43239831 43899747 44329650 44429571 44279513 43789466
       43249453 42729455 42219502 41999620 42219711 42699849
       43239831
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05   40860230 41510440 42890707 44630849 45570926 45730907
       45760821 44520496 44290384 43960323 43440302 42930237
       42750164 42730098 43020036 44319920 45679774 45989625
       45709440 44138981 43628956 42678953 41959012 40479191
       39689314 39299468 39639617 40109702 40589875 40720058
       40860230
0.15   41860021 42340010 43359852 44979680 44989563 44649471
       43609390 42869378 42379421 42169504 41559725 41179898
       41300012 41860021
&&

... WIND ...

0.05   39309560 40099699 40599875 40700051 40850229 41520442
       41670804 41911079 41831141 40951257 39251280 38631375
       39521483 40541509 42621460 43771404 44501348 45581166
       45760821 44510498 42880253 42670166 42650099 42960023
       44699765 45209677 45469419 44879220 43809026 42688955
       41599009 40659097 39869215 39459321 39089458 39309560
0.05   34267599 34677838 35308032 35768279 35678966 36009152
       36789210 37449221 37959151 38049020 37868763 38138449
       38618161 39457838 39007686 37917580 37317504
0.15   41539586 41559725 41189897 41260015 41870015 42299963
       42629859 43269758 43979664 44439547 44339469 44049437
       42789300 42059300 41559377 41359478 41539586
0.15   38437741 37637638 36657549 36007574 35587647 35247735
       35597850 36247984 36748046 37368036 38377911 38627819
       38437741
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... CATEGORICAL ...

SLGT   42340010 43359852 44979680 44989564 44649471 43639392
       42789300 42059300 41559377 41359478 41539586 41559725
       41189897 41300012 41860021 42340010
SLGT   37368036 38377911 38627819 38437741 37637638 36657549
       36007574 35587647 35247735 35597850 36247984 36748046
       37368036
MRGL   40659097 39849216 39459320 39089459 39319560 40099700
       40589874 40720064 40850229 41520443 41670804 41911079
       41831141 40951257 39251280 38631375 39521483 40541509
       42621460 43771404 44501348 45581166 45760822 44520496
       44290384 43960323 43430301 42930238 42760164 42730097
       43020036 44329919 45679774 45989625 45709440 44138981
       43628956 42678953 41599009 40659097
MRGL   34267599 34677838 35308032 35768279 35678966 36009151
       36789210 37449221 37959151 38049020 37868762 38138450
       38618160 39457838 39007686 37917580 37317504
TSTM   31541293 32351331 33021382 33671469 34281519 34251574
       33701616 31911576 99999999 32951827 33301813 33521792
       33601789 33721775 34721732 35381725 36131825 37371875
       43471551 44481451 45531365 46101237 46800573 46540530
       46170408 46350316 46400293 46540242 46650206 46970160
       47380122 47760088 48040060 48310013 48629931 48779651
       48519342 48199089 48009039 46408643 45218514 43798576
       42128776 41038873 40338803 40378591 40648200 41187868
       41387643 41257534 40427415 39337451 38737419 38307340
       99999999 28379516 29149641 30559636 34119444 35109528
       35469660 35719713 36239786 36649836 36979908 37220069
       36770174 35470198 34010239 31460345 30250360 29240506

&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW
ANW 40 SW MHE 15 ENE ATY 40 NW RWF 20 ENE RWF 25 E FRM 30 SSE MCW 45
SW ALO DSM 55 NE SDA 15 N OMA 10 NE OLU 30 N EAR 25 WSW BBW 40 NW
BBW 20 SSW ANW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
ROA 15 WNW SHD 35 NNE CHO 35 SW DCA 45 S NHK 45 ESE ORF 30 SE ECG 50
NE EWN 20 NW EWN 25 SE RDU 10 NNE GSO 30 SSE PSK 20 W ROA.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE
BRL 25 SE IRK 35 SE CDJ MKC 15 N TOP 20 SW BIE 15 W HSI 30 S LBF 40
ESE SNY 35 NE CYS 45 WSW RWL 45 NNE EVW 45 NNW EVW 35 WSW OGD 15 WSW
U24 40 WNW MLF 15 N ELY 40 ESE EKO 10 NNW TWF 25 NE SUN 45 SSE SMN
30 WSW BZN 15 E BIL 30 ENE GCC 40 WNW RAP 10 SW RAP 40 N CDR 35 ENE
CDR 55 W VTN 25 WSW VTN 15 NE VTN 40 N 9V9 35 ENE ABR 40 W AXN 20
WNW STC 25 ENE VOK 35 NNW MSN 25 W JVL 25 ENE MLI 10 SE BRL.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW
HSE 35 SE FAY 35 E CLT 10 S HSS 25 SSW DYR 20 NNE BVX 15 W UNO 20 S
TBN 20 SE VIH 20 NNE FAM 15 SSW EVV 10 NE LEX 15 N CRW 20 W MRB 15
NE DCA 20 W WAL 50 SSE WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 S GBN 55 SW GBN 50
ENE YUM BLH 45 SW EED 50 NNE TRM TRM 65 SE CZZ ...CONT... 60 S LGB
35 S LGB 25 SSE LGB 20 SE LGB 25 SW RAL 30 WSW DAG 30 SE NID 45 NW
NID 20 W BIH 35 E BOI 55 SW SMN 30 NNE SMN 10 NNE BTM 25 NNE MLS 30
ENE MLS 15 SSE BHK 35 SSW DIK 30 SSW DIK 25 SE DIK 35 ESE DIK 40 WNW
BIS 20 SSE N60 25 ENE N60 35 ESE MOT 55 E MOT 40 NNW DVL 20 E HCO
INL 40 NW GNA 15 N GNA 55 E MQT 30 SW PLN 40 SE MBL 45 S RAC 25 S
MMO 25 WNW DNV 30 WNW MIE 30 ESE MFD 10 E DUJ 25 ENE IPT 20 ESE AVP
20 S EWR 10 SSE ACY 55 SSE ACY 100 SE ACY ...CONT... 55 SSE LBX 30
NNW PSX CLL DEQ 30 ENE MLC 20 SE CQB 15 W CQB 10 SSE END 20 ESE AVK
25 WNW AVK 20 NE LBL 15 WNW GUY 25 NW AMA 40 WSW PVW 25 SSW INK 25
ESE MRF 100 SW MRF.

Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 18, 12:43z for portions of PBZ

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