[Alert]The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 17, 19:39z for portions of PBZ

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The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 17, 19:39z for portions of PBZ

052 
WUUS01 KWNS 171940
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025

VALID TIME 172000Z - 181200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02   47226708 45866860 44217072 43997144 43957329 44127387
       45537386
0.05   47486763 45646958 45547015 45917142
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05   49620819 48100457 46529930 46179870 45719875 45289898
       44770017 44800189 44840265 45000403 45560576 46340800
       47241030 47891212 48611387 49511461
0.05   36030482 36740527 37910540 38410537 38640483 38200356
       37590241 37120232 36420241 35920270 35660360 35760431
       36030482
0.15   47800928 48401016 48740882 48410739 47440443 47020368
       46760346 46460345 46250381 46030434 45900470 45870509
       46150589 47190807 47800928
&&

... WIND ...

0.05   49630934 47490264 46860017 46569918 46279877 46109868
       45749875 45289899 44770026 44770289 45060505 45340661
       45930837 48441339 48681393 49761479
0.05   46496718 44366955 42797109 41617196 40917310 37447600
       36997665 36177852 35668081 35689514 34870146 34880327
       35770483 36200522 37040569 38100564 38580563 38810541
       38960507 38890466 38330337 37390115 37309875 37379735
       37519615 37749505 38769221 39189088 39818734 39878100
       40477712 41307614 42877575 43917566 45407552
0.15   47246709 45836865 44197071 44007144 43967336 44127387
       45427386
0.15   49380954 47660506 47270395 46920340 46570330 46410340
       46270364 46060400 45940428 45810473 45810508 45920549
       46120614 46880815 47660958 48251020 49451150
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... CATEGORICAL ...

SLGT   47066729 45836865 44197071 44007144 43967336 44127387
       45427386
SLGT   49380954 47270395 46920340 46570330 46410340 46060400
       45810473 45810508 46120614 46880815 47660958 49451150
MRGL   46496718 44366955 42797109 41617196 40917310 37447600
       36997665 36177852 35668081 35689514 34870146 34880327
       35770483 36200522 37040569 38580563 38810541 38960507
       38890466 37390115 37309875 37379735 37519615 37749505
       39189088 39818734 39878100 40477712 41307614 42877575
       45237554
MRGL   49500790 48130463 46569918 46179870 45719875 45289898
       44770017 44770289 45340661 45930837 48281308 48611387
       49511461
TSTM   49730003 48409677 47369522 46509464 45069595 44079808
       43439932 42850124 42210204 41100191 40090177 39750139
       39540090 39530049 39650003 39809920 39819885 39879826
       40099732 40509307 40428774 40768194 40898010 40827858
       40887760 41107681 41807659 44787626 99999999 28649486
       29249504 29909517 30849504 31569445 33059276 34659137
       35129172 35119394 34719776 34079978 33730120 33360184
       31570213 29370161 99999999 31591371 32021357 32831369
       33281466 33511592 33611657 33921688 34491720 34701726
       35191720 36061683 36631679 37351705 37561714 37781751
       37801775 37711846 37681940 38251989 38871976 41941710
       42371677 42581645 42701600 42701537 42401212 42150860
       42130716 42380631 42830543 43400503 44310561 45240766
       46691151 47501368 48301544 49561754

&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
CAR 45 WSW HUL 30 E MWN 20 SSW MWN 35 NW RUT 25 SE SLK 60 NE MSS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N
HVR 30 SSE SDY 30 WNW DIK 30 WSW DIK 40 SW DIK 25 SSE BHK 40 NE 4BQ
30 NNE 4BQ 25 SSW MLS 65 E LWT 40 N LWT 70 NE CTB.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE
HUL 15 ENE AUG 25 SW PSM 20 NNE GON 10 N ISP 40 NNE ORF 25 WNW ORF
25 NE RDU 30 NNE CLT 15 E MKO 30 SSE AMA 30 SE TCC 20 ENE LVS 40 N
LVS 30 SSE ALS 50 WSW COS 35 W COS 20 WNW COS COS 25 NNW LBL 10 W
P28 20 SSE ICT 40 WSW CNU 25 ENE CNU 40 NW STL 25 N HUF 30 SW HLG 25
NW CXY 20 W AVP 25 SE SYR 40 WNW MSS.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105
NNW GGW 35 NNW SDY 35 SW JMS 50 NNW ABR 25 NW ABR 30 WSW ABR 25 NNE
PIR 50 N RAP 45 NNE SHR 10 NE BIL 40 SW CTB 25 NE GPI 85 N GPI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 115 NNE MOT 25 SSE
HCO 20 SW BJI 25 WNW BRD 30 SE VVV 20 N MHE 25 S 9V9 35 W VTN 40 ENE
AIA 45 NNW IML 30 SSW IML 30 NNE GLD 45 ENE GLD 35 WNW HLC 20 NNW
HLC 45 NE HLC 60 SSW HSI 40 NW CNK 35 WSW BIE 40 NW IRK 15 NNW DNV
30 WSW CAK 30 NNE PIT 30 SE DUJ 15 E UNV 10 SSE IPT 30 SSE ELM 55
NNW ART ...CONT... 50 S GLS 20 WSW GLS 20 NNE HOU 25 ENE UTS 30 NE
LFK 10 SSE ELD 45 NE PBF 40 NE LIT 30 ESE FSM 30 SSE CHK 40 SE CDS
35 E LBB 20 S LBB 25 S MAF 40 W DRT ...CONT... 90 SE YUM 75 SE YUM
55 ENE YUM 25 S BLH 15 ESE TRM 25 W TRM 35 E RAL 35 SW DAG 30 WSW
DAG 35 NW DAG 55 ENE NID 45 W DRA 50 S TPH 35 S TPH 30 SW TPH 40 WSW
TPH 25 NNW BIH 60 WNW BIH 45 S TVL 15 E TVL 45 W OWY 40 NW OWY 45
NNW OWY 50 N OWY 50 WNW TWF 20 NNE MLD 45 NNE RKS 25 N RWL 35 SSE
CPR DGW 50 NNE DGW GCC 45 NW SHR 25 ENE HLN 45 NNE MSO 50 N 3TH 115
NE OMK.

Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 17, 19:39z for portions of PBZ

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