MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 6:51 PM CDT ...New Aviation...200
FXUS64 KMOB 102351
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
651 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025
The base of an upper trough situated over the region will slowly
lift northward through Friday, but we will continue to see some
upper perturbations moving in southwesterly flow passing over our
area. We will then see an upper high pressure area building over
the southeast states and northern Gulf over the weekend and into
early next week. The highest chance of rain looks to occur on
Friday with the upper impulses passing overhead, with numerous to
widespread afternoon showers and storms expected. Otherwise, the
typical diurnal pattern continues through the forecast package,
with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the
weekend, followed by scattered to occasional numerous afternoon
showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. A surface ridge
remains in place over the northern Gulf through the period, and
promotes a light southwesterly to westerly flow over the forecast
area keeping surface dewpoints elevated. We will need to monitor
for heat index concerns early next week with apparent temperatures
mostly ranging from 102-107 degrees. At this time we are not
expecting to issue any Heat Advisories as most indices should
remain below our 108 degree criteria. Pulse thunderstorms are
possible each afternoon give ample instability and minimal shear,
so we can't rule out a few strong storms with gusty winds, locally
heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.
Beach Forecast - The rip current risk briefly increases to
MODERATE for all beaches late this afternoon and evening. The risk
will generally remain LOW throughout the weekend and into early
next week with a brief bump to MODERATE for northwest Florida
likely by Sunday afternoon. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025
VFR conditions generally prevail through the period. Gusty winds
along the coastline will turn lighter overnight and increase again
by mid-morning on Friday. Chances for showers and storms near the
terminals increase as we head into the afternoon hours on Friday.
07/mb
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025
No significant impacts to small craft are expected through early
next week outside of locally higher winds/seas and reduced
visibilities associated with occasional showers and thunderstorms.
/22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 73 92 74 92 74 94 74 95 / 40 70 20 50 10 40 10 60
Pensacola 78 91 78 92 77 93 78 95 / 30 60 20 40 10 40 10 60
Destin 79 91 81 92 80 93 80 94 / 30 50 20 40 10 40 20 60
Evergreen 71 92 72 94 72 95 73 96 / 40 70 30 50 10 40 10 40
Waynesboro 71 90 71 94 72 96 73 96 / 30 80 20 50 20 40 10 40
Camden 71 89 71 92 72 94 73 94 / 30 70 20 50 20 30 10 40
Crestview 73 92 73 94 73 96 73 96 / 30 70 20 50 10 40 10 70
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 6:51 PM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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