MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 7, 12:50 AM CDT ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...152
FXUS64 KMOB 070550
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
A southerly flow pattern aloft continues through Tuesday as an
upper-level low continues to slowly retrograde westward across the
northern Gulf. This will allow for deep moisture to slowly advect
back into the local region. By the middle to latter part of the
week, upper ridging will attempt to build in across the southeast
US. It may, however, have some trouble establishing itself across
our local region as several shortwave impulses are expected to
move around/within the ridge, keeping our area underneath a
weakness within the ridge. Therefore, am anticipating rain chances
to gradually increase throughout the week, with scattered showers
and storms expected for today and tomorrow, becoming more
numerous by the middle to latter part of the week and into the
weekend. Activity is expected to follow a typical diurnal
summertime pattern, with showers and storms developing during the
morning over our marine zones and along the coast, pulse-type
storms developing during the afternoon hours along the sea breeze
which spread inland via outflow boundary collisions, and activity
eventually dissipating during the evening due to the loss of
daytime heating. As we typically see with this type of pattern,
cannot rule out a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty
downburst winds and small hail, as well as very heavy rainfall.
Highs each day will generally top out in the low to mid 90s. At
this point, it still looks like we should stay just below Heat
Advisory criteria, although heat indices could potentially rise to
as high as 102-107 degrees. Lows will range from the low 70s
inland to the mid to upper 70s along the coast. The rip current
risk remains low through much of the period, however, there is an
indication that strengthening onshore flow may help to increase
the rip current risk to a moderate risk for our Florida beaches
during the Wednesday night through Thursday night timeframe. /96
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
General VFR conditions with light southwest to westerly winds at 05z
are expected to last through the rest of the night. Winds are
expected to shift to southerly through the day as a seabreeze
develops and moves inland. Upper end MVFR/VFR conditions are
expected through the morning into the afternoon, with afternoon
showers and thunderstorms bringing local drops in conditions to
mid/low level MVFR. Locally strong and variable winds are also
possible in and near the stronger thunderstorms. This convection is
expected to quickly decrease in coverage during the evening with the
loss of the day's heating. Also, winds well inland are expected to
become light, with westerly winds around 5 knots along and south of
I-10 expected through the evening.
/16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow
prevails through the week. No impacts are expected other than
locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 73 92 73 92 74 91 74 90 / 10 40 10 60 20 70 30 70
Pensacola 77 92 77 91 77 91 78 89 / 10 30 10 40 20 50 20 60
Destin 79 92 80 91 79 91 80 90 / 10 20 10 40 30 50 20 60
Evergreen 72 95 72 94 72 92 72 91 / 10 30 10 60 20 60 30 60
Waynesboro 71 93 71 93 72 91 71 91 / 20 40 10 50 20 60 30 60
Camden 72 93 72 93 72 91 72 90 / 20 30 10 40 20 60 30 60
Crestview 72 94 72 93 73 92 73 90 / 10 40 10 60 20 70 20 70
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 7, 12:50 AM CDT ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...---------------
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