MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 18, 6:48 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...219
FXUS64 KMOB 181148
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
648 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Mostly VFR will persist throughout the day with a few scattered
showers and storms possible along and south of interstate 10 this
morning. Brief reductions in visby could be possible with any
storms but impacts to aviation will be minimal. Winds will be out
of the east-southeast around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20
knots possible. BB/03 &&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 421 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Well the forecast has certainly trended drier the next couple of
days as the upper ridge over the western Atlantic noses into the
area. The reason for the stronger than originally advertised ridge
is the presence of Potential Tropical Storm one over the Bay of
Campeche/southwestern Gulf. While this system will likely drift
westward into Mexico over the next couple of days, the heat
released from this storm is aiding in strengthening the ridge of
high pressure. Kinda like a car exhaust on a car engine. As a
result, the ridge promotes more subsidence and slightly drier
conditions the next 48 hours. The only rain chances today and
tomorrow will likely be confined to the immediate coastline where
moisture will be rich enough and the influences of the ridge will
not be as strong. Otherwise, most of the area is expected to be
dry the next 48 hours. However, PTC one will have an impact on
area beaches as waves will be on the general increase leading to a
HIGH risk of rip currents and large breaking waves at the beaches
leading to a high surf advisory. BB/03
SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
An elongated upper ridge extending from the western Atlantic to
the southern Great Plains will slowly sag southward through Friday
night, and then retrograde westward over the weekend with upper
troughing advancing eastward over the northern Great Plains and
Great Lakes regions. Much of the precipitation will stay out over
the Gulf through Friday, but we do expect isolated to low-end
scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon in
association with the sea-breeze boundary pushing inland with the
best chances remaining across our coastal zones. Rain chances look
to increase over the weekend (20-40%) and especially on Monday
(60%) due to increasing weakness aloft as the upper ridge
retrogrades westward.
Daily highs will stay warm in the lower to middle 90s through
Friday, pushing into the middle to upper 90s (about 3-7 degrees
above normal) over the weekend into early next week. Overnight
lows remain toasty with generally lower to middle 70s expected. A
High Risk of rip currents will remain in effect through at least
Friday. Surf heights will remain around 5 to 7 feet during this
period. /22
For the tropics, there's a couple areas of interest to watch over
the next week. The first is in association with PTC1 in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system will remain well to our
southwest and the only impacts from it will continue to be
increased surf heights through Thursday and rip currents through
late week into the weekend. Late week into the weekend models
continue to be divergent on their solutions for the southwest
Atlantic system. The good news is it appears the system is further
east than anticipated initially, which means the odds of it
staying well east of the forecast area are increasing. MM/25
MARINE...
Issued at 421 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
A moderate to strong east-southeasterly flow will persist
throughout the marine zones through Thursday in response to PTC
one in the Bay of Campeche and a large area of high pressure over
the southeast. Small craft conditions with near gale force gusts
will persist through most of the week with seas also increasing to
around 7 to 9 feet offshore with 2 to 3 feet in nearshore bays
and waterways. Winds and seas are expected to slowly diminish by
the weekend. BB/03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 88 75 90 74 91 73 93 71 / 20 10 30 10 20 20 20 10
Pensacola 89 77 91 76 91 76 91 75 / 10 10 30 20 30 20 30 20
Destin 90 77 91 77 91 77 91 77 / 0 10 30 20 30 30 30 20
Evergreen 89 70 90 69 91 69 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 20 10
Waynesboro 89 72 91 71 91 69 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 10 0
Camden 88 71 89 69 90 69 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0
Crestview 91 71 93 70 93 70 95 70 / 0 0 10 0 20 10 30 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
206.
High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ631-632.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-
675.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 18, 6:48 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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