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148 FXUS64 KLIX 061733AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday night)Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025Weak upper ridging has retreated westward and a second upper ridge has built across the western Atlantic. This has left an overall weakness/weak troughing in the upper levels across the local area and will lead to a typical summertime convective pattern with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Currently seeing isolated convective cells popping upacross land areas, and activity should become more scatteredthrough the remainder of this afternoon. Convection should quickly diminish near or shortly after sunset as the instability associated with daytime heating similarly wanes. The main convective threats today and tomorrow will be gusty winds and periods of locally heavy rainfall. While organized severe weather isn't likely, the environment looks supportive of wind gusts generally in the 30 to 40 mph range, with one or two storms possibly becoming severe, mainly across areas nearer the Atchafalaya River. Precipitable water values are not out of the ordinary for this time of year - sitting around 1.5-1.8 inches - but slow storm motions could still lead to localized accumulationsof 1-2" in a short-ish period of time.Temperatures will continue to be near to slightly above normal with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s and daytime highs in the low to mid 90s.&&.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025Longer term forecast is generally one of persistence as the localarea remains situated between two upper highs located over thesouthwestern CONUS and western Atlantic. Some of the minutiae willchange from day to day, but for the most part, expect scattered tonumerous showers and storms each day staring to fire across landareas during the late morning, peaking in the afternoon, and diminishing in the evening. Fairly typical temperatures will also continue with lows in the mid to upper 70s and highs in the low tomid 90s.During the second half of the week, deep moisture will increaseacross the area with precipitable water forecast to be near orjust above 2 inches across most of the area. This should lead to a further increase in convective coverage with storms becoming more numerous to widespread Wednesday through Friday. The increasein moisture will also lead to potential for more efficient rainfall. While widespread heavy rain is not forecast, individual storms will be capable of producing high rainfall rates with a couple inches of accumulation in a relatively short period of time. &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025Outside of any convective impacts, VFR conditions will prevailthrough the period. Isolated showers and storms have begun poppingup across land areas and should become more scattered as the afternoon progresses. Have included PROB30 groups at all terminalsto account for variable wind directions and lower vis associated with storms. For now have included MVFR conditions, but if a heavier storm moves over any of the terminals, a brief period of IFR conditions cannot be ruled out. Convection should wane around or shortly after 00z, with benign conditions overnight and a repeat of similar conditions tomorrow.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025Marine conditions will be benign through the period outside of any localized impacts from convection. Winds will take on a more onshore direction this afternoon and that will persist through the work week generally ranging from southerly to southwesterly. A fairly typical summertime convective pattern is expected withshowers and storms developing during the late night, peakingduring the morning hours, and diminishing through the afternoonand evening. &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 71 92 71 93 / 30 60 10 40 BTR 73 93 74 93 / 40 70 10 50 ASD 72 93 73 93 / 20 60 10 40 MSY 77 93 77 93 / 20 70 10 50 GPT 75 91 75 92 / 10 50 10 40 PQL 72 92 73 93 / 10 40 10 40 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...DMLONG TERM....DMAVIATION...DMMARINE...DM
