IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 6, 2:30 AM EDT521
FXUS63 KIWX 060630
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
230 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid today. Highs around 90 east and south of Ft Wayne
with heat indices around 90 to the mid 90s.
- Thunderstorms will develop rapidly this afternoon over
northwest Indiana. Heavy rainfall is likely which could lead
to local flooding. Severe storms are not expected.
- Temperatures near normal this upcoming workweek with highs in
the 80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025
A weak cold front will move into northern Indiana this afternoon and
provide the impetus for storm development. At the onset, mid level
lapse rates will be quite stable between 5.0 and 5.5C/Km, but
precipitable water values will be anomalously high with values
around 2.0 inches. In this environment, chances for severe storms
are low, but heavy rainfall is likely which could bring local
flooding. The strongest storms should occur between 4pm EDT and 9pm
EDT.
For this upcoming week, the subtropical ridge over the
southwest CONUS will stay relatively subdued as an abundance of
energy races over the top of the ridge into the Midwest and
Upper Midwest. This pattern will help keep favorable conditions
for thunderstorms over the forecast area for the rest of the
week. While the most conducive diurnal time for thunderstorms
from about 19Z to 01Z (this diurnal time is strongly favored),
storms are also possible outside this window.
As for temperatures, a weak cold front will do little to bring
relief to the hot conditions except for being a few degrees cooler
Monday. Heat indices will be in the 90s this afternoon, but will
stay below advisory criteria. High temperatures the rest of the
week will be near normal in the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025
VFR conditions expected at least through around 16z Sun when
chances for thunderstorms increase along and ahead of a cold
frontal passage which will bring MVFR cigs and MVFR/IFR vsbys
in thunderstorm rains which may become moderate to heavy at
times. At this time kept MVFR conditions in the TAFs as
confidence on the exact placement and timing/occurrence of the
heavier downpours is low. Gusty winds and lightning will be the
primary threats with any storms that develop. Continued to use
the prob 30 groups to highlight the most probable time frames.
South-southwest winds through most of the period, shifting west
as the front nears. After 04z Mon, vsbys for KSBN look to drop
into the IFR/LIFR categories in mist due to the potential for
still very moist lower levels and some cooling that will lower
dew point depressions. Will need to monitor for this potential
and extent eastward.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Andersen
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 6, 2:30 AM EDT---------------
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